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Atlético Tucumán Res. v Gimnasia Mendoza 2

Atlético Tucumán Res.

0–0Full time

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

Reserve League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Atlético Tucumán Res. 0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Tucumán Res. win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Tucumán Res. win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Tucumán Res. 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Tucumán Res. v Gimnasia Mendoza 2
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Atlético Tucumán Res. win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Tucumán Res. 0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Tucumán Res. 0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2
51′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
63′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
71′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
77′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
83′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
90′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Atlético Tucumán Res. 0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2
FTAtlético Tucumán Res. 0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · Atlético Tucumán Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Tucumán Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Tucumán Res. 41%, draw 29%, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 31%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Tucumán Res. v Gimnasia Mendoza 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Tucumán Res. win41%

Draw29%

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win31%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Tucumán Res.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético tucumán res. winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Atlético Tucumán Res. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Tucumán Res. v Gimnasia Mendoza 2~~1.25 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 10 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~24 v 12

~~The market · Atlético Tucumán Res. win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Tucumán Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Tucumán Res. win	41%	41%	0
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	51%	−11
Both teams to score	46%	56%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−11
Atlético Tucumán Res. or draw	69%	69%	0
Atlético Tucumán Res. clean sheet	35%	–	–
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 10.5 5.6 1 12.4 13.1 6.8 2.4 2 7.8 8.0 4.2 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Tucumán Res. down, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,676 Reserve League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 577 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Tucumán Res. at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Mendoza 2 away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Atlético Tucumán Res., 1.05 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GIM 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 10 Sept

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES.

LLWDWD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2

WWWDDD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
8	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
9	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
10	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6