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Atl. Rafaela 2 v Newell's Old Boys Res.

Atl. Rafaela 2

18:00Upcoming

Newell's Old Boys Res.

Reserve League · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atl. Rafaela 2DrawNewell's Old Boys Res.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Newell's Old Boys Res. 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newell's Old Boys Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atl. Rafaela 2 29%, draw 27%, Newell's Old Boys Res. 43%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Atl. Rafaela 2 v Newell's Old Boys Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atl. Rafaela 2 win29%

Draw27%

Newell's Old Boys Res. win43%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atl. Rafaela 2

Newell's Old Boys Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newell's old boys res. winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Newell's Old Boys Res. a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atl. Rafaela 2 v Newell's Old Boys Res.~~1.09 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 18~~14 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atl. Rafaela 2 win	29%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Newell's Old Boys Res. win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Atl. Rafaela 2 or draw	57%	–	–
Atl. Rafaela 2 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Newell's Old Boys Res. clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.8 11.5 8.0 3.8 1 9.0 12.7 8.6 4.0 2 5.0 6.8 4.7 2.2 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atl. Rafaela 2 down, Newell's Old Boys Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,682 Reserve League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 583 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atl. Rafaela 2 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Newell's Old Boys Res. away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Atl. Rafaela 2, 1.39 for Newell's Old Boys Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NEW 3–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 17 Sept

ATL. RAFAELA 2

DLWLDD0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES.

WWDDDW4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	+11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	+8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	+2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	+3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	+2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	+2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	+4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	−4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	−6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	−11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6