Home › Football › Reserve League › Atl. Rafaela 2 v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

Atl. Rafaela 2 v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

Atl. Rafaela 2

1–1Full time

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

Reserve League · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Atl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 ATL. RAFAELA 2 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atl. Rafaela 2 win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atl. Rafaela 2 win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Atl. Rafaela 2 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
3′KICK-OFF Atl. Rafaela 2 v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Atl. Rafaela 2 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Atl. Rafaela 2 win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Atl. Rafaela 2 0–0 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
46′SECOND HALF Atl. Rafaela 2 0–0 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
48′We said Atl. Rafaela 2 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–23
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Atl. Rafaela 2 0–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
50′A goal for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Atl. Rafaela 2 win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
51′We said Atl. Rafaela 2 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–68
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Atl. Rafaela 2 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
65′We said Atl. Rafaela 2 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
81′81′ and it is 1–1: Atl. Rafaela 2 have scored. 1–1 · 12–80–9
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Atl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Atl. Rafaela 2 win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win 9%)
83′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 9–84–7
84′⚽ GOAL · 49' Atl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
84′⚽ GOAL · 81' Atl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Atl. Rafaela 2 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Atl. Rafaela 2
FTFULL TIME Atl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
FTAtl. Rafaela 2 1–1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · Atl. Rafaela 2 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Atl. Rafaela 2 win45%

Draw27%

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atl. Rafaela 2

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atl. rafaela 2 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Atl. Rafaela 2 a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atl. Rafaela 2 win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Atl. Rafaela 2 or draw	72%	–	–
Atl. Rafaela 2 clean sheet	36%	–	–
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 9.3 4.8 1 12.5 12.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.5 8.5 4.3 3 3.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atl. Rafaela 2 down, Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,646 Reserve League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 547 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atl. Rafaela 2 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Atl. Rafaela 2, 1.02 for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–2 ATL

Form · last six in Reserve League

ATL. RAFAELA 2

WWDLWL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

ESTUDIANTES RIO CUARTO 2

WWWWDD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	32	+37	66
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
3	Boca Juniors Res.	32	+33	62
4	Lanús Res.	31	+23	61
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
6	Racing Club Res.	33	+5	50
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	30	+17	49
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49
10	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	30	0	49
11	Deportivo Riestra Res.	30	+18	48
12	Rosario Central Res.	30	+4	46
13	Unión Santa Fe Res.	30	+11	45
14	Atlético Tucumán Res.	31	−6	45
15	Defensa y Justicia Res.	30	+13	44
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43
17	Talleres Córdoba Res.	30	+7	43
18	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	30	−1	43
19	San Lorenzo Res.	30	0	41
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
21	Argentinos Juniors Res.	30	+1	39
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
24	Sarmiento Res.	30	−7	33
25	Independiente Riva. Res.	30	−10	33
26	Platense Res.	30	−12	33
27	Godoy Cruz Res.	30	−8	32
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31
30	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	30	−21	31
31	Tigre Res.	30	−15	30
32	Aldosivi Res.	30	−15	29
33	Ferro 2	30	−18	28
34	Colón Res.	30	−17	26
35	Barracas Central Res.	30	−24	25
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	30	−55	18