Tristan Suarez v Patronato prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 23:01

Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato TRISTAN SUAREZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tristan Suarez win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tristan Suarez win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Tristan Suarez v Patronato
2′Much as we predicted: Tristan Suarez was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–32–17
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Patronato
25′We published Tristan Suarez at 51%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–3
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Tristan Suarez win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
26′Tristan Suarez find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
50′We published Tristan Suarez at 51%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
50′🟨 YELLOW · 40' F. Meritello · Patronato
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Patronato · On: F. Moreyra · Off: S. Piccioni
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Patronato · On: T. Attis · Off: J. P. Barinaga
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Patronato · On: A. Miro · Off: R. Reynaga
65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' F. Evangelista · Patronato
68′We published Tristan Suarez at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Tristan Suarez win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 69' R. Conechny · Tristan Suarez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tristan Suarez · On: N. Sanchez · Off: R. Conechny
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tristan Suarez · On: S. Ramirez · Off: D. Becker
81′We published Tristan Suarez at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tristan Suarez · On: A. Berrondo · Off: J. Beron
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Patronato
87′A red card for Patronato on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 97–3–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Tristan Suarez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Patronato
89′🟨 YELLOW · 85' T. Attis · Patronato
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Tristan Suarez at 51% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Tristan Suarez
FTFULL TIME Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato
FTTristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato · Tristan Suarez win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tristan Suarez are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tristan Suarez 51%, draw 32%, Patronato 17%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Tristan Suarez v PatronatoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tristan Suarez win51%

Draw32%

Patronato win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio 20 de Octubre

Line-ups

Tristan Suarez

Patronato

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tristan Suarez

Patronato

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tristan Suarez

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bigo

4 B. Aguilar

2 M. Guzman

6 A. Baldi

3 N. Fernandez

8 N. Del Priore

5 M. Enrique

10 D. Becker

11 J. Beron

7 M. Guillen

9 R. Conechny

Coach · Jose Martinez

Substitutes

12 · J. Mendive

13 · M. Olguin

14 · A. Molina

15 · D. Mastrangelo

16 · N. Sanchez

17 · L. Noriega

18 · S. Magnotta

19 · S. Ramirez

20 · A. Berrondo

Patronato

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sosa

4 W. Rueda

2 F. Meritello

6 F. Evangelista

3 S. Piccioni

8 J. Salas

5 A. Picco

10 J. P. Barinaga

11 V. L. Pereyra

7 F. Soldano

9 R. Reynaga

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · F. Rivasseau

13 · F. N. Diaz

14 · F. Moreyra

15 · M. Brugevin

16 · A. Miro

17 · B. Bravo

18 · G. Salega

19 · T. Attis

20 · H. Rivero

Our number · tristan suarez winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Tristan Suarez a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tristan Suarez v Patronato~~1.28 – 0.62

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 59 v 37~~1 v 15

~~The market · Tristan Suarez win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tristan Suarez win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tristan Suarez win	51%	51%	0
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Patronato win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Both teams to score	34%	35%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	14%	−1
Tristan Suarez or draw	83%	82%	+1
Tristan Suarez clean sheet	54%	–	–
Patronato clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 16.4 8.2 2.9 1 18.1 12.8 3.6 2 12.2 7.4 2.3 3 5.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tristan Suarez down, Patronato across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tristan Suarez at home: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Patronato away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Tristan Suarez, 0.62 for Patronato. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAT 1–1 TRI · PAT 2–0 TRI · TRI 2–0 PAT · PAT 3–0 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

TRISTAN SUAREZ

DDDWDD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

PATRONATO

DDDWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	34	+7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	33	+12	51
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	33	−3	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23