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Temperley v Nueva Chicago

Temperley

2–1Full time

Nueva Chicago

Primera Nacional · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Alfredo Beranger

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Temperley 2–1 Nueva Chicago TEMPERLEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Temperley win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Temperley win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Temperley was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–31–18
41′We said Temperley at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
47′We said Temperley at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–49–15
54′We said Temperley at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–55–13
63′Temperley ahead on 56′ through L. Nieto. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 32% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Temperley win 32%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 89% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Temperley win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
75′Temperley ahead on 56′ through L. Nieto. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 32% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Temperley win 32%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 89% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Temperley win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 89% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 89% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nueva Chicago · On: J. Sardinas · Off: D. Arroyo
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Temperley win: 51% at kick-off, 89% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nueva Chicago · On: G. Trindade · Off: E. Mendez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Temperley · On: D. Trebotic · Off: F. Benitez
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Temperley 1–0 Nueva Chicago
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Temperley 1–1 Nueva Chicago · L. Nieto
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nueva Chicago
93′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Echeverria · Temperley
93′🟨 YELLOW · 11' R. E. Zalazar · Nueva Chicago
93′🟨 YELLOW · 26' L. Ambrogio · Nueva Chicago
93′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Nueva Chicago
93′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Nueva Chicago · On: S. Cocimano · Off: L. Ambrogio
93′⚽ GOAL · 56' Temperley 1–1 Nueva Chicago · L. Nieto (assist F. Benitez)
93′🟨 YELLOW · 58' E. Roldan · Nueva Chicago
93′🟨 YELLOW · 59' L. Nieto · Temperley
93′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nueva Chicago · On: E. Cardozo · Off: M. Rogoski
93′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nueva Chicago · On: D. Barros · Off: A. Ruiz
93′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Temperley · On: L. Richarte · Off: A. Arregui
93′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Temperley · On: P. Souto · Off: L. Nieto
93′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Temperley · On: F. Kruger · Off: M. Echeverria
93′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nueva Chicago · On: J. Sardinas · Off: D. Arroyo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nueva Chicago · On: G. Trindade · Off: E. Mendez
93′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Temperley · On: F. Brandan · Off: G. Hauche
93′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Temperley · On: D. Trebotic · Off: F. Benitez
93′⚽ GOAL · 87' Temperley 1–1 Nueva Chicago · D. Barros
93′🟨 YELLOW · 87' D. Barros · Nueva Chicago
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Temperley 1–1 Nueva Chicago
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Temperley 2–1 Nueva Chicago · D. Barros
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Temperley
FTFULL TIME Temperley 2–1 Nueva Chicago
FTTemperley 2–1 Nueva Chicago · Temperley win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Temperley win51%

Draw33%

Nueva Chicago win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Alfredo Beranger

Line-ups

Temperley

Nueva Chicago

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Temperley

Nueva Chicago

8Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Temperley

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Mastrolia

4 L. Monti

2 O. Pacheco

6 V. Aguinagalde

3 L. Angelini

11 F. Benitez

5 F. Diaz

8 A. Arregui

10 L. Nieto

7 G. Hauche

9 M. Echeverria

Coach · Nicolas Domingo

Substitutes

12 · L. Morrone

13 · N. Avalos

14 · M. Calzon

15 · L. Richarte

16 · P. Souto

17 · D. Trebotic

18 · F. Kruger

19 · F. Brandan

20 · A. Melo

Nueva Chicago

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Masuero

4 B. Palazzo

2 D. Gissi

6 R. E. Zalazar

3 D. Arroyo

5 E. Mendez

8 E. Roldan

7 T. Ocampo

10 A. Ruiz

11 L. Ambrogio

9 M. Rogoski

Coach · Luis Garcia

Substitutes

12 · L. Jachfe

13 · E. Carrizo

14 · G. Ferracutti

15 · J. Sardinas

16 · E. Cardozo

17 · G. Trindade

18 · S. Cocimano

19 · N. Petrecca

20 · D. Barros

Our number · temperley winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Temperley a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · temperley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Temperley win	51%	51%	−1
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Nueva Chicago win	17%	19%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Both teams to score	31%	38%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	11%	16%	−5
Temperley or draw	83%	81%	+2
Temperley clean sheet	57%	–	–
Nueva Chicago clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.3%

0123450 18.2 8.6 2.8 1 19.3 12.5 3.3 2 12.2 6.9 3 5.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Temperley down, Nueva Chicago across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.30 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Temperley at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nueva Chicago away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Temperley, 0.57 for Nueva Chicago. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NUE 1–1 TEM · TEM 3–0 NUE · NUE 0–1 TEM · TEM 0–0 NUE

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

TEMPERLEY

WWDWLW1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

NUEVA CHICAGO

LWLDWL0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23