Temperley v Chacarita Juniors prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TemperleyDrawChacarita Juniors

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Temperley 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Temperley are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Temperley 51%, draw 31%, Chacarita Juniors 17%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Temperley v Chacarita JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Temperley win51%

Draw31%

Chacarita Juniors win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Alfredo Beranger

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Temperley

Chacarita Juniors

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · temperley winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market48%

Us51%

~~Market~~48%

We make Temperley a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Temperley v Chacarita Juniors~~1.31 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 60 v 36~~2 v 16

~~The market · Temperley win~~48% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Temperley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Temperley win	51%	48%	+3
Draw	31%	31%	0
Chacarita Juniors win	17%	21%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Both teams to score	35%	38%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	14%	15%	−1
Temperley or draw	83%	79%	+4
Temperley clean sheet	53%	–	–
Chacarita Juniors clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 15.5 8.1 3.0 1 17.4 12.9 3.8 2 12.0 7.7 2.5 3 5.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Temperley down, Chacarita Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Temperley at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chacarita Juniors away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Temperley, 0.65 for Chacarita Juniors. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–1 TEM · CHA 0–0 TEM · TEM 0–3 CHA · CHA 1–2 TEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

TEMPERLEY

DWLWWD0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

CHACARITA JUNIORS

LWLWLW0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26