San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

San Telmo 0–0 Defensores De Belgrano SAN TELMO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said San Telmo win~~41%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.680

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Telmo win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano
5′Little has changed for our model: San Telmo 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–25
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was San Telmo win 38%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' San Telmo win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME San Telmo 0–0 Defensores De Belgrano
45′SECOND HALF San Telmo 0–0 Defensores De Belgrano
50′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Defensores De Belgrano · On: F. Tcherkaski · Off: E. Gonzalez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Defensores De Belgrano · On: L. Ciccolini · Off: P. Moyano
60′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Defensores De Belgrano · On: G. Gamarra · Off: L. Jerez Silva
61′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Telmo · On: J. Iritier · Off: M. Batallini
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Telmo · On: G. Paredes · Off: P. Romero
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' San Telmo win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
69′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' San Telmo · On: C. Nunez · Off: M. Gonzalez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' San Telmo · On: I. Larthirigoyen · Off: J. Porto
76′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Telmo · On: R. Gamarra · Off: N. Molina
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' San Telmo win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
82′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
89′We said San Telmo at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′0–0 at the end. Our 41% on San Telmo misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+7' San Telmo win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME San Telmo 0–0 Defensores De Belgrano
FTSan Telmo 0–0 Defensores De Belgrano · San Telmo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Telmo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Telmo 41%, draw 33%, Defensores De Belgrano 26%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on San Telmo v Defensores De BelgranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Telmo win41%

Draw33%

Defensores De Belgrano win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Osvaldo Baletto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Telmo

Defensores De Belgrano

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
15	San Telmo	33	−9	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san telmo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

41% The market24%

Us41%

~~Market~~24%

We make San Telmo a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano~~1.12 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 37~~15 v 13

~~The market · San Telmo win~~24% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Telmo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Telmo win	41%	24%	+17
Draw	33%	45%	−12
Defensores De Belgrano win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	23%	+8
Both teams to score	39%	34%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	59%	49%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	13%	10%	+3
San Telmo or draw	74%	69%	+5
San Telmo clean sheet	44%	–	–
Defensores De Belgrano clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.8%

0123450 15.8 10.7 4.9 1 14.9 14.2 5.4 2 8.9 7.3 3.0 3 3.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Telmo down, Defensores De Belgrano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,927 Primera Nacional matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.1% of games this season, across 611 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Telmo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Defensores De Belgrano away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for San Telmo, 0.82 for Defensores De Belgrano. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEF 1–0 SAN · DEF 1–2 SAN · SAN 0–3 DEF · SAN 1–2 DEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

SAN TELMO

DWLWWL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO

DWWLDL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
14	Central Norte	34	−8	37
15	San Telmo	33	−9	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32