San Miguel v Deportivo Madryn prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San MiguelDrawDeportivo Madryn

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Madryn 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Deportivo Madryn just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: San Miguel 31%, draw 33%, Deportivo Madryn 36%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on San Miguel v Deportivo MadrynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Miguel win31%

Draw33%

Deportivo Madryn win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

VenueEstadio Malvinas Argentinas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Miguel

Deportivo Madryn

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	+20	57
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo madryn winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Deportivo Madryn a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Miguel v Deportivo Madryn~~0.95 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 57~~18 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Miguel win	31%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Deportivo Madryn win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
San Miguel or draw	64%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	35%	–	–
Deportivo Madryn clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.0%

0123450 15.0 13.0 7.4 2.6 1 11.7 14.5 7.0 2.5 2 6.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Miguel down, Deportivo Madryn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Miguel at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Madryn away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for San Miguel, 1.05 for Deportivo Madryn. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–2 SAN · SAN 1–1 DEP · DEP 2–1 SAN · DEP 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

SAN MIGUEL

DDLLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO MADRYN

WDWLDW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	+7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	+20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Chaco For Ever	35	0	43
10	Los Andes	34	+1	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	35	−12	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32