San Martin Tucuman v Colegiales prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Martin TucumanDrawColegiales

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Martin Tucuman 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Martin Tucuman are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martin Tucuman 47%, draw 32%, Colegiales 20%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on San Martin Tucuman v ColegialesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Martin Tucuman win47%

Draw32%

Colegiales win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

VenueEstadio La Ciudadela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martin Tucuman

Colegiales

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 25 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san martin tucuman winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make San Martin Tucuman a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martin Tucuman v Colegiales~~1.22 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 51~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martin Tucuman win	47%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Colegiales win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
San Martin Tucuman or draw	80%	–	–
San Martin Tucuman clean sheet	50%	–	–
Colegiales clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 15.9 9.2 3.7 1 16.6 13.5 4.4 2 10.8 7.5 2.7 3 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martin Tucuman down, Colegiales across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martin Tucuman at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Colegiales away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for San Martin Tucuman, 0.71 for Colegiales. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~COL 2–0 SAN · COL 2–0 SAN · SAN 2–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 19 Sept

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN

LDWLWL2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

COLEGIALES

LWWDWD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26