San Martin S.J. v Gimnasia Jujuy prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Martin S.J.DrawGimnasia Jujuy

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Martin S.J. 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Martin S.J. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martin S.J. 46%, draw 30%, Gimnasia Jujuy 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on San Martin S.J. v Gimnasia JujuyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Martin S.J. win46%

Draw30%

Gimnasia Jujuy win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martin S.J.

Gimnasia Jujuy

13Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san martin s.j. winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make San Martin S.J. a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martin S.J. v Gimnasia Jujuy~~1.34 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 47 v 58~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martin S.J. win	46%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Gimnasia Jujuy win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
San Martin S.J. or draw	76%	–	–
San Martin S.J. clean sheet	41%	–	–
Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.1 8.4 4.3 1 13.1 13.8 5.7 2 9.5 8.4 3.8 3 4.3 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martin S.J. down, Gimnasia Jujuy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martin S.J. at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Jujuy away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for San Martin S.J., 0.90 for Gimnasia Jujuy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GIM 2–1 SAN · SAN 0–0 GIM · GIM 1–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

SAN MARTIN S.J.

DWLLDD0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

GIMNASIA JUJUY

WDDLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26