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Quilmes v San Martin Tucuman

Quilmes

2–1Full time

San Martin Tucuman

Primera Nacional · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31

Quilmes 2–1 San Martin Tucuman QUILMES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quilmes win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quilmes win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Quilmes was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–35–25
1′KICK-OFF Quilmes v San Martin Tucuman
7′We said Quilmes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Quilmes 0–1 San Martin Tucuman
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' San Martin Tucuman win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Quilmes win 39%)
10′N. Castro scores for San Martin Tucuman on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
10′We said Quilmes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' San Martin Tucuman
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Quilmes 1–1 San Martin Tucuman
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was San Martin Tucuman win 65%)
29′Quilmes score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' San Martin Tucuman
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' San Martin Tucuman
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Quilmes
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′HALF-TIME Quilmes 1–1 San Martin Tucuman
45′SECOND HALF Quilmes 1–1 San Martin Tucuman
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' San Martin Tucuman · On: D. Diellos · Off: A. Graneros
49′We said Quilmes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–52–20
58′We said Quilmes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Quilmes · On: G. Vazquez · Off: J. Yangali
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Martin Tucuman · On: G. Rodriguez · Off: M. Garcia
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Martin Tucuman · On: A. Paz · Off: A. Veliez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Martin Tucuman · On: J. Juarez · Off: L. Arfaras
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Quilmes · On: S. Rodriguez · Off: M. Vallejos
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Quilmes · On: M. Fernandez · Off: T. Ortega
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' San Martin Tucuman
80′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–1 · 10–83–7
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
81′We said Quilmes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Quilmes · On: N. Colazo · Off: A. Batista
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Quilmes · On: L. Romeo · Off: J. Novillo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' San Martin Tucuman · On: G. Carabajal · Off: N. Castro
84′We published Quilmes at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Quilmes 2–1 San Martin Tucuman
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Quilmes win: 40% at kick-off, 95% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Quilmes win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 89%)
85′Quilmes find the net on 85′. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
86′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
93′A red card for San Martin Tucuman on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' San Martin Tucuman
FTFULL TIME Quilmes 2–1 San Martin Tucuman
FTQuilmes 2–1 San Martin Tucuman · Quilmes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quilmes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Quilmes 40%, draw 35%, San Martin Tucuman 25%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Quilmes v San Martin TucumanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Quilmes win40%

Draw35%

San Martin Tucuman win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quilmes

San Martin Tucuman

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	+3	46
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quilmes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Quilmes a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quilmes v San Martin Tucuman~~1.04 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 46~~14 v 10

~~The market · Quilmes win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Quilmes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quilmes win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	35%	30%	+5
San Martin Tucuman win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
Both teams to score	35%	45%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	55%	64%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	11%	20%	−9
Quilmes or draw	75%	75%	0
Quilmes clean sheet	47%	–	–
San Martin Tucuman clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.9%

0123450 17.9 11.5 4.9 1 15.9 14.0 4.9 2 8.8 6.7 2.6 3 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quilmes down, San Martin Tucuman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.89 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quilmes at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin Tucuman away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Quilmes, 0.76 for San Martin Tucuman. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.89

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 QUI · SAN 1–1 QUI · QUI 1–2 SAN · QUI 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

QUILMES

WLWDLL1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN

WLDWLW3–0 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	34	+18	62
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	+3	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
12	Almagro	34	−10	41
13	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26