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Quilmes v Agropecuario

Quilmes

0–1Full time

Agropecuario

Primera Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Quilmes 0–1 Agropecuario QUILMES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quilmes win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.964

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.999

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quilmes win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Quilmes was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–21
20′J. Vega scores for Agropecuario on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–27–55
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Quilmes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Agropecuario win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Quilmes win 18%)
42′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Quilmes · On: M. Fernandez · Off: U. Vera
45′SECOND HALF Quilmes 0–1 Agropecuario
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Quilmes · On: S. Rodriguez · Off: A. Ortega
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Quilmes · On: A. Lavezzi · Off: N. Colazo
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Quilmes · On: G. Vazquez · Off: A. Spetale
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Agropecuario
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Agropecuario · On: R. Castro · Off: D. Ruiz Diaz Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Quilmes · On: R. Martinez · Off: G. Vega
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Agropecuario · On: D. Actis · Off: T. Lecanda
78′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Quilmes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Agropecuario · On: O. Belinetz · Off: R. Mosqueira
79′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Quilmes
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' A. Bolivar · Quilmes
FTFULL TIME Quilmes 0–1 Agropecuario
FTQuilmes 0–1 Agropecuario · Quilmes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Quilmes win48%

Draw31%

Agropecuario win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Marinelli

4 A. Ortega

2 L. Romeo

6 J. Novillo

3 A. Bindella

5 A. Bolivar

8 A. Batista

7 G. Vega

11 U. Vera

10 N. Colazo

9 A. Spetale

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Canadell

14 · S. Luna

15 · F. Yozwiak

16 · R. Martinez

17 · J. Aimale

18 · M. Fernandez

19 · G. Vazquez

20 · A. Lavezzi

13 · S. Rodriguez

Agropecuario

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Acosta

4 T. Lecanda

2 A. Perez

6 A. Aguirre

3 F. Sanchez

5 S. Gallucci

7 D. Ruiz Diaz

8 B. Aranda

11 R. Mosqueira

10 J. Vega

9 A. Gagliardi

Coach · Adrian Adrover

Substitutes

13 · D. Actis

14 · E. Aguirre

19 · C. Auzqui

20 · O. Belinetz

16 · R. Castro

18 · J. Heritier

15 · N. Pereyra

12 · G. Salort

17 · J. Valdez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Marinelli

4 A. Ortega

2 L. Romeo

6 J. Novillo

3 A. Bindella

5 A. Bolivar

8 A. Batista

7 G. Vega

11 U. Vera

10 N. Colazo

9 A. Spetale

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Canadell

14 · S. Luna

15 · F. Yozwiak

16 · R. Martinez

17 · J. Aimale

18 · M. Fernandez

19 · G. Vazquez

20 · A. Lavezzi

13 · S. Rodriguez

Agropecuario

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Acosta

4 T. Lecanda

2 A. Perez

6 A. Aguirre

3 F. Sanchez

5 S. Gallucci

7 D. Ruiz Diaz

8 B. Aranda

11 R. Mosqueira

10 J. Vega

9 A. Gagliardi

Coach · Adrian Adrover

Substitutes

13 · D. Actis

14 · E. Aguirre

19 · C. Auzqui

20 · O. Belinetz

16 · R. Castro

18 · J. Heritier

15 · N. Pereyra

12 · G. Salort

17 · J. Valdez

Our number · quilmes winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Quilmes a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · quilmes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quilmes win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	31%	29%	+3
Agropecuario win	20%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Both teams to score	38%	43%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
Quilmes or draw	80%	80%	−1
Quilmes clean sheet	48%	–	–
Agropecuario clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 14.7 8.7 3.6 1 15.9 13.5 4.6 2 10.8 7.9 2.9 3 4.7 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quilmes down, Agropecuario across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,892 Primera Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 576 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quilmes at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Agropecuario away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Quilmes, 0.74 for Agropecuario. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AGR 0–0 QUI · QUI 1–0 AGR · AGR 1–1 QUI · QUI 1–1 AGR

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

QUILMES

LLWLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

AGROPECUARIO

DWLWLD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
3	Tristan Suarez	32	+17	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	32	+8	48
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
14	Colegiales	32	+1	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	32	−3	42
20	Los Andes	32	+2	40
21	Quilmes	32	+3	39
22	Almagro	32	−10	38
23	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
24	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
25	San Telmo	32	−8	37
26	Agropecuario	32	−9	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Chacarita Juniors	32	−9	33
32	Central Norte	32	−9	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23