Patronato v Club Atlético Güemes prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Patronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes PATRONATO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Patronato win~~54%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.326

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.205

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Patronato win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Patronato 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–27–18
42′We said Patronato at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–42–16
45′We said Patronato at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–44–16
63′We said Patronato at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–58–13
71′Patronato find the net on 71′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Patronato win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 30% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Patronato win 30%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
83′Patronato ahead on 66′ through H. Rivero. 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 30% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Patronato win 30%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Patronato win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Patronato win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Patronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Club Atlético Güemes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Club Atlético Güemes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Patronato · On: B. Bravo · Off: J. P. Barinaga
90′🟨 YELLOW · 25' J. Juarez · Club Atlético Güemes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Club Atlético Güemes · On: R. Silisque · Off: M. Martinez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 35' I. Ortigoza · Club Atlético Güemes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Patronato · On: G. Salega · Off: T. Attis
90′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Club Atlético Güemes · On: M. Gerez · Off: J. Juarez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Club Atlético Güemes · On: D. Veliz · Off: R. Arnay
90′🟨 YELLOW · 56' M. Gerez · Club Atlético Güemes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Atlético Güemes · On: B. Gerez · Off: I. Ortigoza
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Atlético Güemes · On: S. Farrera · Off: G. Pugliese
90′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Patronato · On: H. Rivero · Off: R. Reynaga
90′⚽ GOAL · 66' Patronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes · H. Rivero
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Patronato · On: J. Salas · Off: F. Soldano
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Patronato · On: A. Miro · Off: V. L. Pereyra
90′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Gonzalez · Club Atlético Güemes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 75' G. Salega · Patronato
90′⚽ GOAL · 81' Patronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes · G. Salega (assist A. Miro)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' R. Silisque · Club Atlético Güemes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' S. Farrera · Club Atlético Güemes
FTFULL TIME Patronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes
FTPatronato 2–0 Club Atlético Güemes · Patronato win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Patronato win54%

Draw29%

Club Atlético Güemes win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Line-ups

Patronato

Club Atlético Güemes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Patronato

Club Atlético Güemes

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Patronato

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sosa

4 W. Rueda

2 F. Meritello

6 F. Evangelista

3 S. Piccioni

5 A. Picco

8 F. Soldano

7 T. Attis

10 J. P. Barinaga

11 V. L. Pereyra

9 R. Reynaga

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · B. Bravo

15 · M. Brugevin

13 · F. N. Diaz

18 · A. Miro

14 · F. Moreyra

12 · F. Rivasseau

20 · H. Rivero

16 · J. Salas

19 · G. Salega

Club Atlético Güemes

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Finochietto

4 M. Martinez

2 A. Gonzalez

6 F. Melillan

3 F. Rizzi

5 G. Baier

8 R. Arnay

7 J. Juarez

10 G. Pugliese

11 I. Ortigoza

9 C. Leineker

Coach · Juan Vita

Substitutes

12 · T. Palleres

13 · L. Guinazu

14 · A. Pinto

15 · R. Silisque

16 · D. Veliz

17 · J. Carranza

18 · S. Farrera

20 · B. Gerez

19 · M. Gerez

Our number · patronato winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

54% The market64%

Us54%

~~Market~~64%

We make Patronato a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · patronato win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Patronato win	54%	64%	−10
Draw	29%	24%	+5
Club Atlético Güemes win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	36%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−5
Patronato or draw	83%	88%	−5
Patronato clean sheet	50%	–	–
Club Atlético Güemes clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.1 7.2 2.9 1 15.9 12.7 4.1 2 12.2 8.4 2.9 3 5.9 4.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Patronato down, Club Atlético Güemes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.71 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Patronato at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Club Atlético Güemes away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Patronato, 0.69 for Club Atlético Güemes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–0 PAT · PAT 1–1 CLU · CLU 1–1 PAT · CLU 2–1 PAT

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

PATRONATO

LDDDWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23