Patronato v Agropecuario prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PatronatoDrawAgropecuario

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Patronato 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Patronato are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Patronato 44%, draw 32%, Agropecuario 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Patronato v AgropecuarioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Patronato win44%

Draw32%

Agropecuario win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 35

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Patronato

Agropecuario

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · patronato winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

44% The market53%

Us44%

~~Market~~53%

We make Patronato a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Patronato v Agropecuario~~1.23 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 37 v 40~~15 v 14

~~The market · Patronato win~~53% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Patronato win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Patronato win	44%	53%	−9
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Agropecuario win	24%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−3
Patronato or draw	76%	81%	−5
Patronato clean sheet	44%	–	–
Agropecuario clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.1 9.4 4.4 1 14.5 14.0 5.3 2 9.7 7.9 3.3 3 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Patronato down, Agropecuario across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Patronato at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Agropecuario away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Patronato, 0.83 for Agropecuario. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AGR 1–1 PAT · PAT 4–0 AGR · AGR 1–0 PAT · PAT 1–1 AGR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

PATRONATO

DDWLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

AGROPECUARIO

LWLDWL0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26