Nueva Chicago v San Martin S.J. prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nueva ChicagoDrawSan Martin S.J.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nueva Chicago 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nueva Chicago just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nueva Chicago 36%, draw 35%, San Martin S.J. 29%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Nueva Chicago v San Martin S.J.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nueva Chicago win36%

Draw35%

San Martin S.J. win29%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Nueva Chicago

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nueva Chicago

San Martin S.J.

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nueva chicago winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market34%

Us36%

~~Market~~34%

We make Nueva Chicago a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nueva Chicago v San Martin S.J.~~0.97 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 47~~17 v 9

~~The market · Nueva Chicago win~~34% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nueva Chicago win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nueva Chicago win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	35%	33%	+2
San Martin S.J. win	29%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	11%	16%	−5
Nueva Chicago or draw	71%	67%	+4
Nueva Chicago clean sheet	44%	–	–
San Martin S.J. clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.8%

0123450 17.8 12.5 5.7 1 14.7 14.3 5.5 2 7.8 6.4 2.7 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nueva Chicago down, San Martin S.J. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nueva Chicago at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin S.J. away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Nueva Chicago, 0.83 for San Martin S.J.. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 NUE · SAN 1–0 NUE · NUE 2–1 SAN · NUE 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

NUEVA CHICAGO

LDWLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

SAN MARTIN S.J.

DWLLDD0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26