Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia Jujuy prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01

Nueva Chicago 0–1 Gimnasia Jujuy NUEVA CHICAGO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nueva Chicago win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nueva Chicago win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nueva Chicago 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–29
1′KICK-OFF Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia Jujuy
12′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Nueva Chicago · On: D. Arroyo · Off: G. Ferracutti
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nueva Chicago win 34%)
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Gimnasia Jujuy
45′HALF-TIME Nueva Chicago 0–0 Gimnasia Jujuy
46′SECOND HALF Nueva Chicago 0–0 Gimnasia Jujuy
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Nueva Chicago win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
54′We said Nueva Chicago at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–53–21
57′We said Nueva Chicago at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimnasia Jujuy · On: C. Menendez · Off: F. Paradela
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimnasia Jujuy · On: J. Franzoni · Off: O. Bianchi
67′We said Nueva Chicago at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nueva Chicago · On: S. Cocimano · Off: M. Perez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nueva Chicago · On: D. Barros · Off: T. Ocampo
69′A goal for Gimnasia Jujuy on 69′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
69′We said Nueva Chicago at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Nueva Chicago 0–1 Gimnasia Jujuy
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Nueva Chicago win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Gimnasia Jujuy win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gimnasia Jujuy · On: C. Pombo · Off: F. Molina
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nueva Chicago · On: E. Cardozo · Off: L. Ambrogio
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nueva Chicago · On: N. Petrecca · Off: G. Trindade
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gimnasia Jujuy · On: D. Minervino · Off: M. Cachi
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Nueva Chicago
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Gimnasia Jujuy
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Nueva Chicago
FTFULL TIME Nueva Chicago 0–1 Gimnasia Jujuy
FTNueva Chicago 0–1 Gimnasia Jujuy · Nueva Chicago win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nueva Chicago are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nueva Chicago 38%, draw 33%, Gimnasia Jujuy 29%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia JujuyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nueva Chicago win38%

Draw33%

Gimnasia Jujuy win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Nueva Chicago

Line-ups

Nueva Chicago

Gimnasia Jujuy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nueva Chicago

Gimnasia Jujuy

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nueva Chicago

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Masuero

6 R. E. Zalazar

2 D. Gissi

3 G. Ferracutti

4 B. Palazzo

5 E. Roldan

8 T. Rodriguez

11 G. Trindade

7 T. Ocampo

9 M. Perez

10 L. Ambrogio

Coach · Luis Garcia

Substitutes

12 · L. Jachfe

13 · E. Carrizo

14 · D. Arroyo

15 · E. Mendez

16 · E. Cardozo

17 · M. Rogoski

18 · S. Cocimano

19 · N. Petrecca

20 · D. Barros

Gimnasia Jujuy

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Alvarez

4 F. Camargo

2 G. Cosaro

6 N. Dematei

3 E. Endrizzi

8 D. Gallardo

5 F. Maidana

7 F. Paradela

11 O. Bianchi

9 M. Cachi

10 F. Molina

Coach · Hernan Pellerano

Substitutes

12 · G. Gomez

13 · J. Varela

14 · D. Minervino

15 · D. Lopez

16 · H. Soria

17 · C. Pombo

18 · A. Arganaraz

19 · J. Franzoni

20 · C. Menendez

Our number · nueva chicago winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Nueva Chicago a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia Jujuy~~1.06 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 55~~16 v 4

~~The market · Nueva Chicago win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nueva Chicago win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nueva Chicago win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	33%	31%	+2
Gimnasia Jujuy win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	59%	66%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Nueva Chicago or draw	71%	72%	−1
Nueva Chicago clean sheet	41%	–	–
Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.5%

0123450 15.5 11.4 5.7 1 13.8 14.4 5.9 2 8.0 7.0 3.2 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nueva Chicago down, Gimnasia Jujuy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,918 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.9% of games this season, across 602 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nueva Chicago at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Jujuy away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Nueva Chicago, 0.90 for Gimnasia Jujuy. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GIM 4–0 NUE · NUE 1–0 GIM · GIM 2–1 NUE · GIM 2–0 NUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

NUEVA CHICAGO

WLDWLL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

GIMNASIA JUJUY

WWDDLD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	34	+18	62
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	34	+7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	33	+12	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23