Midland v Gimnasia Y Tiro prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MidlandDrawGimnasia Y Tiro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Midland 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Midland are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Midland 43%, draw 33%, Gimnasia Y Tiro 24%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Midland v Gimnasia Y TiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Midland win43%

Draw33%

Gimnasia Y Tiro win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueRaul Roberto Sabureau Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Midland

Gimnasia Y Tiro

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · midland winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make Midland a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Midland v Gimnasia Y Tiro~~1.13 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 51 v 52~~6 v 5

~~The market · Midland win~~47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Midland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Midland win	43%	47%	−4
Draw	33%	32%	+1
Gimnasia Y Tiro win	24%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Both teams to score	37%	36%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	13%	14%	−1
Midland or draw	76%	79%	−3
Midland clean sheet	46%	–	–
Gimnasia Y Tiro clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.3%

0123450 16.3 10.4 4.5 1 15.6 14.0 5.0 2 9.4 7.2 2.8 3 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Midland down, Gimnasia Y Tiro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,931 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 615 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Midland at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Y Tiro away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Midland, 0.78 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GIM 1–0 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

MIDLAND

WWLDWL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–3

GIMNASIA Y TIRO

DLWLDW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26