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Midland v Atletico DE Rafaela

Midland

4–0Full time

Atletico DE Rafaela

Primera Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela MIDLAND WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Midland win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.337

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Midland win at 48%.
0′Much as we predicted: Midland was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
11′Much as we predicted: Midland was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–33–20
20′13′ and it is 1–0: D. Bulacio on the scoresheet for Midland. 1–0 · 80–15–5
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Midland win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Midland 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
45′SECOND HALF Midland 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: M. Moreno · Off: A. Rodriguez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: M. Pardo · Off: N. Cainelli
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Atletico DE Rafaela
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' T. Rojas · Atletico DE Rafaela
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · F. Marin
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · L. Recalde
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · L. Recalde
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: J. Capurro · Off: F. Soloa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Midland · On: V. Madalon · Off: F. Marin
83′⚽ GOAL · 13' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · D. Bulacio (assist F. Marin)
83′⚽ GOAL · 25' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · F. Marin (assist M. Roseti)
83′🟨 YELLOW · 28' A. Rodriguez · Atletico DE Rafaela
83′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: M. Moreno · Off: A. Rodriguez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: M. Pardo · Off: N. Cainelli
83′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Midland · On: D. Guzman · Off: J. Perales
83′🟨 YELLOW · 70' T. Rojas · Atletico DE Rafaela
83′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Midland · On: J. Camano · Off: R. Luna
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: J. Capurro · Off: F. Soloa
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Midland · On: V. Madalon · Off: F. Marin
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: M. Quiroga · Off: J. Bonifacio
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: L. Flores · Off: T. Rojas Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 78' Midland 3–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · L. Recalde
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Midland · On: M. Abruzzese · Off: D. Bulacio
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Midland · On: M. Abruzzese · Off: D. Bulacio
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · L. Recalde
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
FTFULL TIME Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
FTMidland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela · Midland win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Midland win48%

Draw32%

Atletico DE Rafaela win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

Venue · Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Midland

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Leguiza

4 I. Andrada

2 G. Cepeda

6 L. Recalde

3 P. Casarico

10 M. Roseti

5 N. Violini

8 F. Marin

7 D. Bulacio

9 J. Perales

11 R. Luna

Coach · Joaquin Iturreria

Substitutes

12 · S. Garcia Rossi

13 · M. Penepil

16 · M. Abruzzese

15 · J. Camano

14 · L. Diaz Laharque

20 · M. Flores

18 · R. Cao

19 · D. Guzman

17 · V. Madalon

Atletico DE Rafaela

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bergia

2 A. Solveyra

6 U. Yegros

3 N. Ramos

4 N. Cainelli

10 A. Obando

5 F. Soloa

8 A. Rodriguez

7 T. Rojas

9 L. Albertengo

11 J. Bonifacio

Coach · Fernando Quiroz

Substitutes

12 · R. Martinez

13 · M. Morello

14 · L. Flores

15 · J. Capurro

16 · M. Fernandez

17 · M. Pardo

18 · M. Quiroga

19 · I. Protti

20 · M. Moreno

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Midland

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Leguiza

4 I. Andrada

2 G. Cepeda

6 L. Recalde

3 P. Casarico

10 M. Roseti

5 N. Violini

8 F. Marin

7 D. Bulacio

9 J. Perales

11 R. Luna

Coach · Joaquin Iturreria

Substitutes

12 · S. Garcia Rossi

13 · M. Penepil

16 · M. Abruzzese

15 · J. Camano

14 · L. Diaz Laharque

20 · M. Flores

18 · R. Cao

19 · D. Guzman

17 · V. Madalon

Atletico DE Rafaela

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bergia

2 A. Solveyra

6 U. Yegros

3 N. Ramos

4 N. Cainelli

10 A. Obando

5 F. Soloa

8 A. Rodriguez

7 T. Rojas

9 L. Albertengo

11 J. Bonifacio

Coach · Fernando Quiroz

Substitutes

12 · R. Martinez

13 · M. Morello

14 · L. Flores

15 · J. Capurro

16 · M. Fernandez

17 · M. Pardo

18 · M. Quiroga

19 · I. Protti

20 · M. Moreno

Our number · midland winPublished 10 Oct 20:48

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Midland a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · midland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Midland win	48%	53%	−5
Draw	32%	29%	+4
Atletico DE Rafaela win	20%	18%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	30%	36%	−7
Both teams to score	36%	40%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	13%	18%	−5
Midland or draw	80%	82%	−2
Midland clean sheet	51%	–	–
Atletico DE Rafaela clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 16.2 9.1 3.5 1 17.0 13.4 4.2 2 11.0 7.5 2.6 3 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Midland down, Atletico DE Rafaela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,892 Primera Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 576 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Midland at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico DE Rafaela away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Midland, 0.69 for Atletico DE Rafaela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 MID

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

MIDLAND

LLWWLD0–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA

WLLWLL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
3	Tristan Suarez	32	+17	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	32	+8	48
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
14	Colegiales	32	+1	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	32	−3	42
20	Los Andes	32	+2	40
21	Quilmes	32	+3	39
22	Almagro	32	−10	38
23	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
24	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
25	San Telmo	32	−8	37
26	Agropecuario	32	−9	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Chacarita Juniors	32	−9	33
32	Central Norte	32	−9	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23