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Godoy Cruz v CA Estudiantes

Godoy Cruz

6–3Full time

CA Estudiantes

Primera Nacional · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Feliciano Gambarte

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Godoy Cruz 6–3 CA Estudiantes GODOY CRUZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Godoy Cruz win~~43%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Godoy Cruz win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Godoy Cruz 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–34–24
1′KICK-OFF Godoy Cruz v CA Estudiantes
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Godoy Cruz
13′CA Estudiantes score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–60
13′We said Godoy Cruz at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–60
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Godoy Cruz 0–1 CA Estudiantes
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' CA Estudiantes win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Godoy Cruz win 16%)
19′We said Godoy Cruz at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
19′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Godoy Cruz · On: E. Burgos · Off: T. Rossi
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' CA Estudiantes
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Godoy Cruz
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63
33′Godoy Cruz find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–42–22
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Godoy Cruz 1–1 CA Estudiantes
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CA Estudiantes win 22%)
40′A goal for CA Estudiantes on 40′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–66
40′We said Godoy Cruz at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Godoy Cruz 1–2 CA Estudiantes
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' CA Estudiantes win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 24%)
41′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–24–67
43′Godoy Cruz score on 43′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–47–20
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Godoy Cruz 2–2 CA Estudiantes
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was CA Estudiantes win 20%)
44′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 32–48–20
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' CA Estudiantes
45′Godoy Cruz find the net on 45′. 3–2. 3–2 · 80–16–4
45′We said Godoy Cruz at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–16–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Godoy Cruz 3–2 CA Estudiantes
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Godoy Cruz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
45′HALF-TIME Godoy Cruz 3–2 CA Estudiantes
46′SECOND HALF Godoy Cruz 3–2 CA Estudiantes
47′5 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 80–16–3
52′A goal for Godoy Cruz on 52′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 97–3–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Godoy Cruz 4–2 CA Estudiantes
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Godoy Cruz win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
54′We said Godoy Cruz at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 4–2 · 97–2–0
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Godoy Cruz
55′That is 6, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 97–2–0
58′A goal for Godoy Cruz on 58′. 4–2 · 98–2–0
58′We said Godoy Cruz at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–2 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Godoy Cruz 5–2 CA Estudiantes
59′7 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Godoy Cruz · On: J. Moran · Off: N. Brunet
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Godoy Cruz · On: B. Schamine · Off: G. Gil Romero
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Godoy Cruz · On: A. Guerrero · Off: R. Fernandez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CA Estudiantes · On: S. Camacho · Off: E. Acosta
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CA Estudiantes · On: T. Squie · Off: F. Quinteros
69′CA Estudiantes find the net on 69′. 5–3. 5–3 · 99–1–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Godoy Cruz 5–3 CA Estudiantes
71′That is 8, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 5–3 · 99–1–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CA Estudiantes · On: E. Almiron · Off: I. Vera Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Godoy Cruz · On: S. Martinez · Off: A. Rodriguez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 71' CA Estudiantes · On: E. Almiron · Off: I. Vera
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CA Estudiantes · On: M. Acosta · Off: D. Rostagno
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CA Estudiantes · On: M. Nunez · Off: M. Albarracin
88′A goal for Godoy Cruz on 88′ — 6–3. 6–3 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Godoy Cruz 6–3 CA Estudiantes
89′9 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 6–3 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' CA Estudiantes
FTFULL TIME Godoy Cruz 6–3 CA Estudiantes
FTGodoy Cruz 6–3 CA Estudiantes · Godoy Cruz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Godoy Cruz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Godoy Cruz 43%, draw 33%, CA Estudiantes 24%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Godoy Cruz v CA EstudiantesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Godoy Cruz win43%

Draw33%

CA Estudiantes win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Feliciano Gambarte

Line-ups

Godoy Cruz

CA Estudiantes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Godoy Cruz

CA Estudiantes

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
7	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Godoy Cruz

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Strumia

4 F. Gerometta

6 T. Rossi

3 D. Viera

2 N. Brunet

7 A. Rodriguez

5 G. Gil Romero

10 V. Poggi

8 F. Cairus

11 R. Fernandez

9 M. Pino

Coach · Mariano Toedtli

Substitutes

12 · R. Ramirez

13 · E. Burgos

14 · L. Arce

15 · J. Moran

16 · B. Schamine

17 · M. Sosa

18 · A. Guerrero

19 · F. Oviedo

20 · S. Martinez

CA Estudiantes

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lungarzo

4 M. Albarracin

2 J. Benitez

6 Caro Nicolas

3 F. Quinteros

7 F. Ardiles

5 R. Melo

8 F. Sena

11 E. Acosta

9 D. Rostagno

10 I. Vera

Coach · Alfredo Grelak

Substitutes

12 · F. Vila

13 · F. Dure

14 · T. Squie

15 · B. Sanchez de Leon

16 · L. Silva

17 · M. Nunez

18 · S. Camacho

19 · E. Almiron

20 · M. Acosta

Our number · godoy cruz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market56%

Us43%

~~Market~~56%

We make Godoy Cruz a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Godoy Cruz v CA Estudiantes~~1.12 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 57 v 48~~3 v 7

~~The market · Godoy Cruz win~~56% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Godoy Cruz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Godoy Cruz win	43%	56%	−13
Draw	33%	28%	+5
CA Estudiantes win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Both teams to score	37%	39%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	13%	19%	−6
Godoy Cruz or draw	76%	84%	−8
Godoy Cruz clean sheet	46%	–	–
CA Estudiantes clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.3%

0123450 16.3 10.5 4.6 1 15.6 13.9 5.0 2 9.4 7.2 2.8 3 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Godoy Cruz down, CA Estudiantes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,918 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.9% of games this season, across 602 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Godoy Cruz at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CA Estudiantes away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Godoy Cruz, 0.77 for CA Estudiantes. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CAE 1–0 GOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

GODOY CRUZ

WWWDWD2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

CA ESTUDIANTES

LWWWLW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
9	Los Andes	33	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	−2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	−9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
13	San Telmo	33	−9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36
15	Central Norte	33	−9	34
16	All Boys	33	−10	34
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32