Gimnasia Y Tiro v Quilmes prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gimnasia Y TiroDrawQuilmes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gimnasia Y Tiro 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia Y Tiro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Y Tiro 45%, draw 34%, Quilmes 21%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia Y Tiro v QuilmesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia Y Tiro win45%

Draw34%

Quilmes win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

VenueEstadio El Gigante del Norte

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Quilmes

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia y tiro winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Gimnasia Y Tiro a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia Y Tiro v Quilmes~~1.11 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 52 v 42~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Y Tiro win	45%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Quilmes win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw	79%	–	–
Gimnasia Y Tiro clean sheet	51%	–	–
Quilmes clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.3%

0123450 18.3 10.2 3.8 1 17.5 13.5 4.2 2 10.3 6.8 2.3 3 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Y Tiro down, Quilmes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Quilmes away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Gimnasia Y Tiro, 0.67 for Quilmes. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~QUI 1–0 GIM · GIM 2–1 QUI · QUI 1–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

GIMNASIA Y TIRO

DLWLDW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

QUILMES

LWDLLW0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26