Gimnasia Y Tiro v Atlanta prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

Gimnasia Y Tiro 3–1 Atlanta GIMNASIA Y TIRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia Y Tiro win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia Y Tiro win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gimnasia Y Tiro was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia Y Tiro v Atlanta
15′A goal for Gimnasia Y Tiro on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–6
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 Atlanta
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
17′We published Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
28′We published Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–1 Atlanta
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
30′Atlanta score on 29′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–42–20
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gimnasia Y Tiro win 37%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Atlanta
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Gimnasia Y Tiro
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–1 Atlanta
46′We said Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–50–18
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–1 Atlanta
53′We said Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Gimnasia Y Tiro
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
63′We said Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimnasia Y Tiro · On: A. Tallura · Off: J. C. Oviedo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimnasia Y Tiro · On: J. Aguirre · Off: R. Villarreal
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimnasia Y Tiro · On: L. Gordillo · Off: N. Contin
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Atlanta
70′We said Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–11
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlanta · On: J. Puch · Off: F. Romero
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Atlanta
77′A red card for Atlanta on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 14–78–8
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Atlanta
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
78′Gimnasia Y Tiro find the net on 77′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Gimnasia Y Tiro 2–1 Atlanta
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Gimnasia Y Tiro win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
79′We published Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
79′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gimnasia Y Tiro · On: I. F. Chaves · Off: T. Banega
79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' T. Rojas · Atlanta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atlanta · On: F. Caceres · Off: B. Rivero
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Gimnasia Y Tiro win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
82′We published Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 3–1. We called Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′A goal for Gimnasia Y Tiro on 90′. 2–1 · 98–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
92′We published Gimnasia Y Tiro at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Gimnasia Y Tiro 3–1 Atlanta
93′4 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atlanta · On: G. Miranda · Off: M. Garcia
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia Y Tiro 3–1 Atlanta
FTGimnasia Y Tiro 3–1 Atlanta · Gimnasia Y Tiro win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia Y Tiro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Y Tiro 44%, draw 34%, Atlanta 22%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia Y Tiro v AtlantaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia Y Tiro win44%

Draw34%

Atlanta win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio El Gigante del Norte

Line-ups

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Atlanta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Atlanta

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atlanta	33	+9	58
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	33	+4	49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Cosentino

4 J. C. Oviedo

2 M. Guanini

6 G. Diaz

3 R. Villarreal

8 T. Banega

5 F. Sivetti

10 N. Rinaldi

11 F. Rojas

7 J. Rocca

9 N. Contin

Coach · Juan Azconzabal

Substitutes

12 · J. Papaleo

13 · J. Gordillo

14 · A. Tallura

15 · I. F. Chaves

16 · J. Aguirre

17 · J. Capano

18 · F. Karabulut

19 · P. A. Rodriguez

20 · L. Gordillo

Atlanta

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Rago

4 M. Garcia

2 R. Moreira

6 T. Rojas

3 R. Sosa

8 T. Castro Ponce

5 B. Rivero

11 F. Romero

7 F. Alvarez

9 A. Quintana

10 I. Rodriguez

Coach · Cristian Pellerano

Substitutes

12 · L. Lopez Kaleniuk

13 · L. Galeano

14 · P. Ostachuk

15 · D. Arguello

16 · G. Mendoza

17 · J. Puch

18 · C. Bernardi

19 · F. Caceres

20 · G. Miranda

Our number · gimnasia y tiro winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Gimnasia Y Tiro a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia Y Tiro v Atlanta~~1.12 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 49 v 58~~6 v 3

~~The market · Gimnasia Y Tiro win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia Y Tiro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Y Tiro win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	34%	35%	−1
Atlanta win	22%	27%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Both teams to score	35%	40%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	11%	15%	−4
Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw	78%	73%	+5
Gimnasia Y Tiro clean sheet	50%	–	–
Atlanta clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.5%

0123450 17.5 10.2 4.0 1 16.9 13.7 4.4 2 10.1 7.0 2.5 3 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Y Tiro down, Atlanta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home: 1.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atlanta away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Gimnasia Y Tiro, 0.70 for Atlanta. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 GIM · GIM 2–2 ATL · ATL 1–0 GIM · GIM 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

GIMNASIA Y TIRO

WDLWLD3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

ATLANTA

WWDWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	33	+9	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Midland	33	+12	51
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	33	+4	49
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
14	Quilmes	33	+2	39
15	Patronato	33	−3	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23