Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Gimnasia Jujuy 2–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro GIMNASIA JUJUY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia Jujuy win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia Jujuy win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia Jujuy 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–23
48′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia Jujuy 46% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–46–19
48′We said Gimnasia Jujuy at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–48–19
61′We said Gimnasia Jujuy at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–58–15
82′Gimnasia Y Tiro ahead on 75′ through F. Rojas. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
84′A goal for Gimnasia Y Tiro on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
85′A goal for Gimnasia Y Tiro on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Gimnasia Jujuy 2–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro · M. Guanini
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gimnasia Jujuy 2–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro · M. Guanini
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Gimnasia Y Tiro
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Gimnasia Jujuy win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia Jujuy 2–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro
FTGimnasia Jujuy 2–2 Gimnasia Y Tiro · Gimnasia Jujuy win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gimnasia Jujuy win46%

Draw32%

Gimnasia Y Tiro win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio 23 de Agosto

Line-ups

Gimnasia Jujuy

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gimnasia Jujuy

Gimnasia Y Tiro

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Jujuy

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Alvarez

4 F. Camargo

2 G. Cosaro

6 N. Dematei

3 E. Endrizzi

8 D. Gallardo

5 F. Maidana

7 F. Paradela

10 F. Molina

9 M. Cachi

11 C. Menendez

Coach · Hernan Pellerano

Substitutes

12 · M. Ramos Mingo

13 · J. Varela

14 · D. Minervino

15 · D. Lopez

16 · H. Soria

17 · M. Casa

18 · A. Arganaraz

19 · C. Pombo

20 · O. Bianchi

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Cosentino

4 J. C. Oviedo

2 M. Guanini

6 G. Diaz

3 L. Montoya

7 J. Rocca

5 M. Birge

8 F. Sivetti

11 T. Banega

9 N. Contin

10 F. Rojas

Coach · Juan Azconzabal

Substitutes

12 · J. Papaleo

13 · I. Batista

14 · A. Tallura

15 · I. F. Chaves

16 · R. Villarreal

17 · J. Capano

18 · W. Montoya

19 · T. Borquez

20 · P. A. Rodriguez

Our number · gimnasia jujuy winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Gimnasia Jujuy a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimnasia jujuy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Jujuy win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Gimnasia Y Tiro win	22%	23%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	60%	66%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Gimnasia Jujuy or draw	78%	77%	+1
Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet	47%	–	–
Gimnasia Y Tiro clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 15.0 9.4 4.0 1 15.5 13.8 4.9 2 10.2 7.7 3.0 3 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Jujuy down, Gimnasia Y Tiro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Jujuy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Y Tiro away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Gimnasia Jujuy, 0.77 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GIM 1–1 GIM · GIM 2–0 GIM · GIM 0–0 GIM

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

GIMNASIA JUJUY

DWWDDL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

GIMNASIA Y TIRO

WWDLWL1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23