Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gimnasia JujuyDrawAtlanta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gimnasia Jujuy 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia Jujuy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Jujuy 49%, draw 30%, Atlanta 21%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia Jujuy v AtlantaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia Jujuy win49%

Draw30%

Atlanta win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio 23 de Agosto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia Jujuy

Atlanta

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia jujuy winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Gimnasia Jujuy a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta~~1.39 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 58 v 58~~3 v 4

~~The market · Gimnasia Jujuy win~~50% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia Jujuy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Jujuy win	49%	50%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Atlanta win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Gimnasia Jujuy or draw	79%	79%	0
Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atlanta clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 12.4 7.9 3.7 1 14.1 13.5 5.1 2 10.5 8.5 3.5 3 4.9 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Jujuy down, Atlanta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Jujuy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlanta away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Gimnasia Jujuy, 0.82 for Atlanta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–0 GIM · GIM 2–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 GIM · GIM 1–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

GIMNASIA JUJUY

WDDLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

ATLANTA

WDWWWL2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26