Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing Cordoba prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Racing Cordoba FERRO CARRIL OESTE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ferro Carril Oeste win~~54%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferro Carril Oeste win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ferro Carril Oeste 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
1′KICK-OFF Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing Cordoba
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Racing Cordoba
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
42′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–40–17
45′HALF-TIME Ferro Carril Oeste 0–0 Racing Cordoba
46′SECOND HALF Ferro Carril Oeste 0–0 Racing Cordoba
49′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Ferro Carril Oeste win 39%)
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ferro Carril Oeste
58′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
58′Ferro Carril Oeste find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
58′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Racing Cordoba
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 54% at kick-off, 85% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Ferro Carril Oeste win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: G. Castellani · Off: A. Gonzalez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Racing Cordoba · On: M. Machado · Off: T. Kummer
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Racing Cordoba · On: F. Monticelli · Off: A. Bustos
73′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Racing Cordoba · On: S. Gonzalez · Off: L. C. Pena
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Racing Cordoba · On: L. Viano · Off: F. Taborda
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Racing Cordoba
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: N. Gomez · Off: L. Parisi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: L. Marra · Off: M. Kabalin
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: F. Garcia · Off: N. Reniero
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
83′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ferro Carril Oeste
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Racing Cordoba
FTFULL TIME Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Racing Cordoba
FTFerro Carril Oeste 1–0 Racing Cordoba · Ferro Carril Oeste win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferro Carril Oeste are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste 54%, draw 28%, Racing Cordoba 18%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing CordobaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ferro Carril Oeste win54%

Draw28%

Racing Cordoba win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Line-ups

Ferro Carril Oeste

Racing Cordoba

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferro Carril Oeste

Racing Cordoba

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ferro Carril Oeste

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Monetti

2 F. Tevez

4 K. Nazareno

6 G. Canto

3 E. Ozuna

5 F. Obradovich

7 A. Gonzalez

9 L. Parisi

8 M. Kabalin

10 E. Hoyos

11 N. Reniero

Coach · Juan Sara

Substitutes

12 · L. Ruiz

13 · L. Pena Biafore

14 · S. Corda

15 · N. Gomez

16 · G. Castellani

17 · F. Garcia

18 · E. Dening

19 · S. Garcia

20 · L. Marra

Racing Cordoba

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Laborda

4 R. Chamorro

2 G. Aranda

6 M. Gomez Pereyra

3 J. Bay

10 L. C. Pena

5 T. Kummer

8 A. Bustos

11 F. Taborda

9 P. Chavarria

7 A. Olinick

Coach · Gustavo Coleoni

Substitutes

12 · B. Olivera

13 · L. Avila

14 · M. Sanchez

15 · G. Vega

16 · L. Flores

17 · M. Machado

18 · S. Gonzalez

19 · L. Viano

20 · F. Monticelli

Our number · ferro carril oeste winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market62%

Us54%

~~Market~~62%

We make Ferro Carril Oeste a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing Cordoba~~1.54 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 62 v 40~~1 v 11

~~The market · Ferro Carril Oeste win~~62% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferro Carril Oeste win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferro Carril Oeste win	54%	62%	−8
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Racing Cordoba win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	43%	39%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Ferro Carril Oeste or draw	82%	87%	−5
Ferro Carril Oeste clean sheet	46%	–	–
Racing Cordoba clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 11.0 6.7 3.0 1 14.0 12.7 4.6 2 11.5 8.9 3.5 3 5.9 4.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferro Carril Oeste down, Racing Cordoba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,918 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.9% of games this season, across 602 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferro Carril Oeste at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Cordoba away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Ferro Carril Oeste, 0.79 for Racing Cordoba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RAC 0–0 FER · FER 2–2 RAC · RAC 4–0 FER · FER 2–0 RAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 4 Sept

FERRO CARRIL OESTE

DDWWLD0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

RACING CORDOBA

LLLDDW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
9	Los Andes	33	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	−2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	−9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
13	San Telmo	33	−9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36
15	Central Norte	33	−9	34
16	All Boys	33	−10	34
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32