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Ferro Carril Oeste v Chaco For Ever

Ferro Carril Oeste

0–3Full time

Chaco For Ever

Primera Nacional · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Ferro Carril Oeste 0–3 Chaco For Ever FERRO CARRIL OESTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferro Carril Oeste win~~48%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.963

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferro Carril Oeste win at 48%.
1′Chaco For Ever score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–52
1′KICK-OFF Ferro Carril Oeste v Chaco For Ever
2′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–52
13′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Chaco For Ever
30′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–59
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Chaco For Ever
45′Ferro Carril Oeste are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 10–26–64
45′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Ferro Carril Oeste
45′HALF-TIME Ferro Carril Oeste 0–2 Chaco For Ever
45′SECOND HALF Ferro Carril Oeste 0–2 Chaco For Ever
46′Chaco For Ever find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Ferro Carril Oeste 0–2 Chaco For Ever
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ferro Carril Oeste win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
47′We said Ferro Carril Oeste at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–91
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: E. Dening · Off: N. Reniero
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: L. Marra · Off: G. Castellani
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Chaco For Ever
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chaco For Ever · On: S. Valenzuela · Off: B. Nievas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chaco For Ever · On: A. Lioi · Off: M. Diaz Chaves
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chaco For Ever · On: L. Pruzzo · Off: A. Ojeda
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: N. Gomez · Off: M. Kabalin
75′A goal for Chaco For Ever on 74′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Ferro Carril Oeste 0–3 Chaco For Ever
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: F. Garcia · Off: L. Parisi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: T. Esidin · Off: F. Obradovich
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chaco For Ever · On: M. Tevez · Off: J. Carrizo
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ferro Carril Oeste
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Chaco For Ever · On: J. Cerrudo · Off: L. Fernandez
FTFULL TIME Ferro Carril Oeste 0–3 Chaco For Ever
FTFerro Carril Oeste 0–3 Chaco For Ever · Ferro Carril Oeste win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferro Carril Oeste are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste 48%, draw 32%, Chaco For Ever 20%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Ferro Carril Oeste v Chaco For EverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ferro Carril Oeste win48%

Draw32%

Chaco For Ever win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferro Carril Oeste

Chaco For Ever

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferro carril oeste winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

48% The market66%

Us48%

~~Market~~66%

We make Ferro Carril Oeste a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferro Carril Oeste v Chaco For Ever~~1.26 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 65 v 40~~1 v 10

~~The market · Ferro Carril Oeste win~~66% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferro Carril Oeste win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferro Carril Oeste win	48%	66%	−18
Draw	32%	23%	+9
Chaco For Ever win	20%	10%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Both teams to score	38%	33%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	14%	20%	−6
Ferro Carril Oeste or draw	80%	90%	−10
Ferro Carril Oeste clean sheet	48%	–	–
Chaco For Ever clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.1%

0123450 15.0 8.8 3.6 1 16.1 13.5 4.5 2 10.8 7.8 2.9 3 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferro Carril Oeste down, Chaco For Ever across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferro Carril Oeste at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chaco For Ever away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Ferro Carril Oeste, 0.73 for Chaco For Ever. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–2 FER · CHA 4–2 FER · FER 2–1 CHA · FER 0–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

FERRO CARRIL OESTE

DWWLDW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

CHACO FOR EVER

DWLDWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32