Deportivo Moron v Atletico Mitre prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Deportivo Moron 0–2 Atletico Mitre DEPORTIVO MORON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Moron win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.113

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Moron win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Moron v Atletico Mitre
7′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Moron was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–30–16
35′Atletico Mitre score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–29–54
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Deportivo Moron 0–1 Atletico Mitre
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Deportivo Moron win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Atletico Mitre win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Deportivo Moron win 17%)
36′We said Deportivo Moron at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–29–54
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–29–54
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Deportivo Moron win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
44′We said Deportivo Moron at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Moron 0–1 Atletico Mitre
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Moron 0–1 Atletico Mitre
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Moron · On: J. Esquivel · Off: E. Lazza
55′We said Deportivo Moron at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Deportivo Moron win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
69′We said Deportivo Moron at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Deportivo Moron
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Moron · On: J. Zappacosta · Off: F. Toloza
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Moron · On: E. Iniguez · Off: E. Contreras
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo Moron · On: V. Huertas · Off: M. Burruchaga
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico Mitre · On: S. Rosales · Off: Y. Cabral
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico Mitre · On: Lillo · Off: O. Garrido
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Deportivo Moron · On: M. Benitez · Off: G. Berterame
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico Mitre · On: Gorla · Off: M. Machado Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico Mitre · On: L. Correa · Off: M. Vazquez
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Deportivo Moron at 56% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Deportivo Moron 0–2 Atletico Mitre
94′Atletico Mitre find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Moron 0–2 Atletico Mitre
FTDeportivo Moron 0–2 Atletico Mitre · Deportivo Moron win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Moron are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Moron 56%, draw 28%, Atletico Mitre 15%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Moron v Atletico MitreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Moron win56%

Draw28%

Atletico Mitre win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Line-ups

Deportivo Moron

Atletico Mitre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Moron

Atletico Mitre

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Moron

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Salva

4 L. Cardozo

2 B. Salvareschi

6 E. Lazza

3 J. Livera

11 E. Contreras

8 S. Kubiszyn

5 M. Burruchaga

10 G. Berterame

7 F. Toloza

9 M. Levato

Coach · Walter Otta

Substitutes

12 · F. Diaz

13 · F. Flores

14 · E. Iniguez

15 · M. Gonzalez

16 · E. Franco

17 · V. Huertas

18 · M. Benitez

19 · J. Esquivel

20 · J. Zappacosta

Atletico Mitre

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Pietrobono

4 B. Mieres

2 P. Minissale

6 M. Romero

3 F. Ferrari

8 M. Vazquez

5 J. Alessandroni

7 Y. Cabral

10 M. Maldonado

11 O. Garrido

9 M. Machado

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Ledesma

13 · Lillo

14 · L. Correa

15 · A. Lopez

16 · R. Gonzalez

17 · S. Rosales

18 · M. Ferrari

19 · J. Zarate

20 · F. J. Gorla

Our number · deportivo moron winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make Deportivo Moron a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Moron v Atletico Mitre~~1.49 – 0.66

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 58 v 36~~2 v 14

~~The market · Deportivo Moron win~~55% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Moron win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Moron win	56%	55%	+1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Atletico Mitre win	15%	16%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
Both teams to score	38%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	17%	0
Deportivo Moron or draw	85%	84%	+1
Deportivo Moron clean sheet	52%	–	–
Atletico Mitre clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 12.9 6.7 2.5 1 16.4 12.3 3.7 2 12.9 8.4 2.8 3 6.5 4.2 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Moron down, Atletico Mitre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,918 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.9% of games this season, across 602 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Moron at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Mitre away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Deportivo Moron, 0.66 for Atletico Mitre. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–3 DEP · DEP 3–0 ATL · ATL 0–0 DEP · DEP 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 4 Sept

DEPORTIVO MORON

WWLLWL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

ATLETICO MITRE

DDLLWD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
9	Los Andes	33	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	−2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	−9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
13	San Telmo	33	−9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36
15	Central Norte	33	−9	34
16	All Boys	33	−10	34
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32