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Deportivo Maipu v San Martin S.J.

Deportivo Maipu

1–1Full time

San Martin S.J.

Primera Nacional · SUN 11 OCT · Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Deportivo Maipu 1–1 San Martin S.J. DEPORTIVO MAIPU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo Maipu win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.719

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Maipu win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Maipu was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–25
26′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Maipu was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–36–24
42′Deportivo Maipu ahead on 35′ through J. Giacone. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
45′Deportivo Maipu ahead on 34′ through J. Giacone. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Maipu 1–0 San Martin S.J.
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Deportivo Maipu 1–1 San Martin S.J.
59′SUBSTITUTION · 54' San Martin S.J. · On: G. Rossi · Off: F. Coronel
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Deportivo Maipu · On: B. Orosco · Off: T. Silva
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' San Martin S.J.
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' San Martin S.J.
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' San Martin S.J. · On: H. Zuliani · Off: D. Alvarez
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportivo Maipu · On: L. Cabrera · Off: J. Giacone
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportivo Maipu · On: D. Yavante Gaitan · Off: M. Bonfigli
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' San Martin S.J. · On: R. Rumbolo · Off: S. Jaurena
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' San Martin S.J. · On: R. Rumbolo · Off: S. Jaurena
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Deportivo Maipu win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Deportivo Maipu · On: J. de la Reta · Off: N. Fernandez
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Maipu 1–1 San Martin S.J.
FTDeportivo Maipu 1–1 San Martin S.J. · Deportivo Maipu win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportivo Maipu win45%

Draw31%

San Martin S.J. win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueStadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Line-ups

Deportivo Maipu

San Martin S.J.

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportivo Maipu

San Martin S.J.

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Maipu

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Galardi

4 L. Faggioli

2 S. Paulini

6 A. R. Aguero Gimenez

3 N. Fernandez

8 E. Perez

5 J. Gobetto

11 M. Bonfigli

7 F. Saccone

9 J. Giacone

10 T. Silva

Coach · Alexis Matteo

Substitutes

12 · L. Peraggini

13 · T. Ferreyra

14 · J. de la Reta

15 · M. Ortale

16 · J. Vera

17 · B. Orosco

18 · D. Yavante Gaitan

19 · M. Viguet

20 · L. Cabrera

San Martin S.J.

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Diaz Robles

4 F. Nadalin

2 E. Aguilera

6 M. Cocca

3 D. Alvarez

8 F. Murillo

5 D. A. Mercado Carrizo

10 S. Jaurena

11 L. Monje

7 F. Coronel

9 N. Funez

Coach · Ariel Martos

Substitutes

12 · L. Garzon

13 · N. Paz

14 · L. Acosta

15 · N. Pelaitay

16 · H. Zuliani

17 · B. Juncos

18 · L. Ferreyra

19 · R. Rumbolo

20 · G. Rossi

Our number · deportivo maipu winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Deportivo Maipu a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo maipu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Maipu win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	31%	31%	0
San Martin S.J. win	24%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
Both teams to score	43%	42%	0
Over 1.5 goals	64%	60%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	17%	0
Deportivo Maipu or draw	76%	73%	+2
Deportivo Maipu clean sheet	42%	–	–
San Martin S.J. clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 13.1 9.0 4.4 1 13.8 13.9 5.5 2 9.6 8.1 3.5 3 4.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Maipu down, San Martin S.J. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Maipu at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin S.J. away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Deportivo Maipu, 0.86 for San Martin S.J.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 DEP · SAN 1–0 DEP · DEP 0–2 SAN · DEP 1–0 SAN

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

DEPORTIVO MAIPU

LDDDWW0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

SAN MARTIN S.J.

WLDWLL3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23