Deportivo Maipu v Club Atlético Güemes prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo MaipuDrawClub Atlético Güemes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Maipu 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Maipu are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Maipu 60%, draw 26%, Club Atlético Güemes 14%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Maipu v Club Atlético GüemesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Maipu win60%

Draw26%

Club Atlético Güemes win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueStadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Maipu

Club Atlético Güemes

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo maipu winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market76%

Us60%

~~Market~~76%

We make Deportivo Maipu a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Maipu v Club Atlético Güemes~~1.67 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 48 v 26~~8 v 18

~~The market · Deportivo Maipu win~~76% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Maipu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Maipu win	60%	76%	−16
Draw	26%	17%	+9
Club Atlético Güemes win	14%	8%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	33%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
Deportivo Maipu or draw	86%	92%	−6
Deportivo Maipu clean sheet	51%	–	–
Club Atlético Güemes clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 10.8 5.6 2.2 1 15.1 11.6 3.6 2 13.3 8.8 3.0 3 7.4 4.9 4 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Maipu down, Club Atlético Güemes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Maipu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Club Atlético Güemes away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Deportivo Maipu, 0.67 for Club Atlético Güemes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–0 DEP · DEP 1–1 CLU · CLU 1–1 DEP · CLU 4–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

DEPORTIVO MAIPU

DDWWDL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES

LLLLLW0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	34	+18	62
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	+3	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
12	Almagro	34	−10	41
13	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26