Deportivo Madryn v San Telmo prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo MadrynDrawSan Telmo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Madryn 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Madryn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Madryn 60%, draw 26%, San Telmo 14%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Madryn v San TelmoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Madryn win60%

Draw26%

San Telmo win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Abel Sastre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Madryn

San Telmo

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo madryn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market65%

Us60%

~~Market~~65%

We make Deportivo Madryn a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Madryn v San Telmo~~1.67 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 54 v 38~~4 v 14

~~The market · Deportivo Madryn win~~65% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Madryn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Madryn win	60%	65%	−5
Draw	26%	23%	+3
San Telmo win	14%	12%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Both teams to score	41%	39%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Deportivo Madryn or draw	86%	88%	−2
Deportivo Madryn clean sheet	51%	–	–
San Telmo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 10.8 5.6 2.2 1 15.0 11.7 3.7 2 13.2 8.9 3.0 3 7.3 4.9 4 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Madryn down, San Telmo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Madryn at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Telmo away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Deportivo Madryn, 0.68 for San Telmo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 DEP · DEP 1–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 DEP · SAN 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

DEPORTIVO MADRYN

LWDWLD1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

SAN TELMO

WLWWLD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32