Deportivo Madryn v Chaco For Ever prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Deportivo Madryn 1–2 Chaco For Ever DEPORTIVO MADRYN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Madryn win~~55%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.101

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Madryn win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Madryn 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–27–17
20′Chaco For Ever ahead on 14′ through B. Nievas. 1–1. 1–1 · 51–32–16
25′Chaco For Ever ahead on 14′ through B. Nievas. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–34–16
45′We said Deportivo Madryn at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–44–15
50′We said Deportivo Madryn at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–44–15
58′We said Deportivo Madryn at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–53–13
78′We said Deportivo Madryn at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–77–7
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
90′90′ and it is 1–2: L. Fernandez on the scoresheet for Chaco For Ever. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Deportivo Madryn 1–2 Chaco For Ever · B. Nievas
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Deportivo Madryn 1–2 Chaco For Ever
91′PENALTY MISSED · 92' Chaco For Ever
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 41% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Deportivo Madryn win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Madryn 1–2 Chaco For Ever
FTDeportivo Madryn 1–2 Chaco For Ever · Deportivo Madryn win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportivo Madryn win55%

Draw29%

Chaco For Ever win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Abel Sastre

Line-ups

Deportivo Madryn

Chaco For Ever

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportivo Madryn

Chaco For Ever

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Madryn

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Bonnin

2 F. Giacopuzzi

3 L. Diarte

4 C. Machado

6 C. Corvalan

5 F. Recalde

7 L. Marinucci

10 N. Solis

11 J. Peinipil

8 M. Meli

9 L. Silba

Coach · Christian Diaz

Substitutes

12 · M. Montero

13 · N. D. Ortiz

14 · A. Gutierrez

15 · A. Sosa

16 · A. Dionisio

17 · D. Martinez

18 · F. Bersano

19 · E. Montagna

20 · N. Servetto

Chaco For Ever

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Caprio

2 F. Moreno

3 L. Pruzzo

4 A. Luque

6 M. Silvera

5 B. Nievas

7 B. Garcia

8 S. Valenzuela

10 L. Fernandez

9 M. S. Romero

11 M. Diaz Chaves

Coach · Ricardo Pancaldo

Substitutes

12 · G. Canuto

13 · T. Chamorro

14 · D. Valdez

15 · A. Ojeda

16 · L. Mihovilcevich

17 · M. Tevez

18 · A. Lioi

19 · G. Melgarejo

20 · G. Pacheco

Our number · deportivo madryn winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

55% The market56%

Us55%

~~Market~~56%

We make Deportivo Madryn a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo madryn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Madryn win	55%	56%	−1
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Chaco For Ever win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Deportivo Madryn or draw	84%	83%	+1
Deportivo Madryn clean sheet	53%	–	–
Chaco For Ever clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 13.6 7.0 2.6 1 16.8 12.4 3.7 2 12.8 8.2 2.7 3 6.2 4.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Madryn down, Chaco For Ever across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Madryn at home: 2.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chaco For Ever away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Deportivo Madryn, 0.65 for Chaco For Ever. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–2 DEP · CHA 0–1 DEP · DEP 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–0 DEP

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

DEPORTIVO MADRYN

LWLWDW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

CHACO FOR EVER

DWDWLD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23