Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

Defensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensores De Belgrano win~~49%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.029

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.089

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensores De Belgrano win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Defensores De Belgrano was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–19
2′Much as we predicted: Defensores De Belgrano was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–19
45′42′ and it is 0–2: T. Rodriguez on the scoresheet for Acassuso. 0–2 · 2–8–91
58′We said Defensores De Belgrano at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
72′⚽ GOAL · 70' Defensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
76′Acassuso ahead on 70′ through N. Acosta. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Defensores De Belgrano win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Acassuso win 18%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Defensores De Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Acassuso win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Defensores De Belgrano win 1%)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensores De Belgrano · On: F. Tcherkaski · Off: D. Magallanes
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Defensores De Belgrano · On: L. Ciccolini · Off: I. Perez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Acassuso · On: N. Petillo · Off: K. Dubini
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Acassuso · On: Y. Gomez · Off: T. Rodriguez
FTFULL TIME Defensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso
FTDefensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso · Defensores De Belgrano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Defensores De Belgrano win49%

Draw33%

Acassuso win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueEstadio Juan Pasquale

Line-ups

Defensores De Belgrano

Acassuso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Defensores De Belgrano

Acassuso

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Defensores De Belgrano

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Medina

4 D. Magallanes

2 G. Gamarra

6 L. Jerez Silva

3 I. Perez

5 J. De Tomasso

11 P. Moyano

10 A. Benitez

8 I. Gutierrez

7 E. Aguirre

9 E. Gonzalez

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · L. Gigli

14 · M. Rodriguez

15 · N. Borsotti

16 · L. Ciccolini

17 · D. Garcia

18 · L. Landriel

19 · F. Tcherkaski

20 · J. Ardaiz

12 · L. Daus

Acassuso

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Monllor

4 R. Etcheverri

2 D. N. Bellatti S.

6 J. Ghiraldello

3 A. Ruiz

8 K. Dubini

5 J. Postigo

10 A. Hermoso

11 T. Rodriguez

7 R. Reynoso

9 D. Escalante

Coach · Dario Lema

Substitutes

12 · J. Luque

13 · S. Borges

14 · V. Serrano

15 · N. Petillo

16 · J. Raccio

17 · N. Acosta

18 · F. Sena

19 · Y. Gomez

20 · F. Senn

Our number · defensores de belgrano winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market57%

Us49%

~~Market~~57%

We make Defensores De Belgrano a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · defensores de belgrano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensores De Belgrano win	49%	57%	−7
Draw	33%	27%	+6
Acassuso win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	27%	40%	−13
Both teams to score	32%	41%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	54%	65%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	11%	21%	−10
Defensores De Belgrano or draw	82%	83%	−1
Defensores De Belgrano clean sheet	55%	–	–
Acassuso clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%

0123450 18.0 9.0 3.0 1 18.7 12.8 3.6 2 11.8 7.0 2.1 3 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensores De Belgrano down, Acassuso across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensores De Belgrano at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Acassuso away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Defensores De Belgrano, 0.60 for Acassuso. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ACA 1–0 DEF

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO

WDWWLD3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

ACASSUSO

DLLWWL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23