Colon Santa Fe v Defensores De Belgrano prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Colon Santa FeDrawDefensores De Belgrano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Colon Santa Fe 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colon Santa Fe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colon Santa Fe 45%, draw 34%, Defensores De Belgrano 21%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Colon Santa Fe v Defensores De BelgranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Colon Santa Fe win45%

Draw34%

Defensores De Belgrano win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colon Santa Fe

Defensores De Belgrano

6Days since last match12

Last match: 25 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colon santa fe winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Colon Santa Fe a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colon Santa Fe v Defensores De Belgrano~~1.11 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 14 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 54 v 38~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colon Santa Fe win	45%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Defensores De Belgrano win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Colon Santa Fe or draw	79%	–	–
Colon Santa Fe clean sheet	51%	–	–
Defensores De Belgrano clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 10.2 3.8 1 17.5 13.5 4.2 2 10.4 6.9 2.3 3 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colon Santa Fe down, Defensores De Belgrano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colon Santa Fe at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Defensores De Belgrano away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Colon Santa Fe, 0.67 for Defensores De Belgrano. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEF 0–3 COL · DEF 1–0 COL · COL 0–1 DEF · COL 2–0 DEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 14 Sept

COLON SANTA FE

WDWDDW3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO

WWLDLD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	+7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	+20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Chaco For Ever	35	0	43
10	Los Andes	34	+1	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	35	−12	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32