Home › Football › Primera Nacional › Colon Santa Fe v Almirante Brown

Colon Santa Fe v Almirante Brown

Colon Santa Fe

2–2Full time

Almirante Brown

Primera Nacional · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:30

Colon Santa Fe 2–2 Almirante Brown COLON SANTA FE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colon Santa Fe win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colon Santa Fe win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Colon Santa Fe 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–34–20
2′KICK-OFF Colon Santa Fe v Almirante Brown
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Colon Santa Fe
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Almirante Brown
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Colon Santa Fe win 38%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Colon Santa Fe
44′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
45′HALF-TIME Colon Santa Fe 0–0 Almirante Brown
45′SECOND HALF Colon Santa Fe 0–0 Almirante Brown
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Colon Santa Fe · On: C. Ibarra · Off: D. Sarmiento
55′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
63′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
67′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Colon Santa Fe 1–0 Almirante Brown
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 89% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Colon Santa Fe win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
68′A goal for Colon Santa Fe on 66′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Almirante Brown · On: E. Martinez · Off: M. Zanotti
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Colon Santa Fe · On: Z. Ibarra · Off: S. Olmedo
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Colon Santa Fe · On: L. Garate · Off: J. Marcioni
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Almirante Brown
70′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
71′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Almirante Brown · On: S. Villalba · Off: M. Santiago
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Almirante Brown · On: G. Moreyra · Off: M. Abreliano
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Colon Santa Fe
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Almirante Brown
80′Almirante Brown score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–83–6
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Colon Santa Fe 1–1 Almirante Brown
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Almirante Brown
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Colon Santa Fe win 11%)
81′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–84–5
82′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
88′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Colon Santa Fe 2–1 Almirante Brown
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Colon Santa Fe win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Almirante Brown · On: M. Levi · Off: T. Villoldo
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Almirante Brown · On: L. Jara · Off: L. Pascual
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Colon Santa Fe · On: J. Buosi · Off: L. Garate
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
90′Colon Santa Fe find the net on 87′. 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
90′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
91′Almirante Brown find the net on 90′. 2–1 · 98–2–0
92′We said Colon Santa Fe at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–96–1
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Colon Santa Fe 2–2 Almirante Brown
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Colon Santa Fe win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Colon Santa Fe win 2%)
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Colon Santa Fe 2–2 Almirante Brown
FTColon Santa Fe 2–2 Almirante Brown · Colon Santa Fe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colon Santa Fe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colon Santa Fe 46%, draw 34%, Almirante Brown 20%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Colon Santa Fe v Almirante BrownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Colon Santa Fe win46%

Draw34%

Almirante Brown win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 34

Line-ups

Colon Santa Fe

Almirante Brown

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colon Santa Fe

Almirante Brown

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Colon Santa Fe	33	+14	53
8	Almirante Brown	33	+4	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Colon Santa Fe

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Gimenez

4 M. Peinipil

2 N. Thaller

6 F. Rasmussen

3 S. Olmedo

7 A. Toledo

5 M. Munoz

11 J. Marcioni

10 I. Lago

8 D. Sarmiento

9 A. Bonansea

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Paredes

16 · P. Barrios

17 · E. Beltran

15 · C. Ibarra

14 · Z. Ibarra

19 · M. Cardozo

13 · J. Buosi

18 · L. Garate

20 · G. Patron

Almirante Brown

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Galvan

4 P. Velurtas

2 E. Cardozo

6 G. Cabral

3 G. Alegre Rojas

7 M. Abreliano

5 S. Gauna

8 T. Villoldo

10 L. Pascual

9 M. Zanotti

11 M. Santiago

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Bottini

13 · M. Levi

14 · J. Velazquez

15 · G. Moreyra

16 · R. Gonzalez

17 · E. Martinez

18 · L. Jara

19 · S. Villalba

20 · T. Zarate

Our number · colon santa fe winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Colon Santa Fe a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colon Santa Fe v Almirante Brown~~1.13 – 0.63

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 53 v 47~~5 v 8

~~The market · Colon Santa Fe win~~55% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colon Santa Fe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colon Santa Fe win	46%	55%	−9
Draw	34%	29%	+5
Almirante Brown win	20%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Both teams to score	33%	38%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	10%	17%	−7
Colon Santa Fe or draw	80%	83%	−3
Colon Santa Fe clean sheet	53%	–	–
Almirante Brown clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.5%

0123450 18.5 9.8 3.5 1 18.2 13.2 3.9 2 10.9 6.8 2.2 3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colon Santa Fe down, Almirante Brown across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colon Santa Fe at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almirante Brown away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Colon Santa Fe, 0.63 for Almirante Brown. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ALM 1–1 COL · COL 1–0 ALM · ALM 2–0 COL · ALM 0–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

COLON SANTA FE

LLWDWD1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

ALMIRANTE BROWN

DDLLLD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	+17	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	33	+14	53
6	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	33	0	48
8	Almirante Brown	33	+4	47
9	Los Andes	33	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	−2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	−9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
13	San Telmo	33	−9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36
15	Central Norte	33	−9	34
16	All Boys	33	−10	34
17	Acassuso	33	−10	32
18	San Miguel	33	−13	32