Home › Football › Primera Nacional › Colegiales v Tristan Suarez

Colegiales v Tristan Suarez

Colegiales

0–0Full time

Tristan Suarez

Primera Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio de Colegiales

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Colegiales 0–0 Tristan Suarez COLEGIALES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Colegiales win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.630

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.630

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colegiales win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Colegiales 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–28
1′KICK-OFF Colegiales v Tristan Suarez
5′Little has changed for our model: Colegiales 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–28
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Colegiales win 34%)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' F. Marin · Colegiales
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Colegiales win 34%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Colegiales win 34%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Tristan Suarez
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Colegiales win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 37' F. Marin · Colegiales
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' N. Sanchez · Tristan Suarez
45′SECOND HALF Colegiales 0–0 Tristan Suarez
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Colegiales win 34%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 37' F. Marin · Colegiales
49′🟨 YELLOW · 44' N. Sanchez · Tristan Suarez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colegiales · On: L. Gonzalez · Off: M. Albertengo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tristan Suarez · On: A. Gallo · Off: R. Conechny
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tristan Suarez · On: S. Ramirez · Off: J. Beron
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Tristan Suarez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Colegiales · On: N. Toloza · Off: L. Castillo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Tristan Suarez · On: D. Mastrangelo · Off: M. Guillen
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Tristan Suarez
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Colegiales
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Tristan Suarez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colegiales · On: F. Zicarelli · Off: F. Montiel
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colegiales · On: M. Mamani · Off: R. E. Monserrat
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tristan Suarez · On: L. Noriega · Off: N. Sanchez
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Colegiales
FTFULL TIME Colegiales 0–0 Tristan Suarez
FTColegiales 0–0 Tristan Suarez · Colegiales win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Colegiales win37%

Draw35%

Tristan Suarez win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio de Colegiales

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Colegiales

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Di Fulvio

4 E. Ocampo

2 F. Rivero

6 L. Ortiz

3 E. Insua

7 F. Montiel

5 F. Marin

8 E. Trinidad

11 R. E. Monserrat

9 M. Albertengo

10 L. Castillo

Coach · Leonardo Fernandez

Substitutes

12 · A. Alcorcel

13 · C. Gaston

16 · T. Buenrostro

14 · F. Miranda

18 · F. Zicarelli

15 · L. Gonzalez

17 · L. Juarez

19 · M. Mamani

20 · N. Toloza

Tristan Suarez

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bigo

4 B. Aguilar

2 M. Guzman

6 A. Baldi

3 A. Molina

7 M. Guillen

5 N. Sanchez

8 N. Del Priore

10 D. Becker

9 R. Conechny

11 J. Beron

Coach · Jose Martinez

Substitutes

12 · J. Mendive

15 · D. Mastrangelo

14 · M. Olguin

13 · S. Aquino

18 · K. Colli

16 · M. Luayza

17 · L. Noriega

19 · S. Ramirez

20 · A. Gallo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Colegiales

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Di Fulvio

4 E. Ocampo

2 F. Rivero

6 L. Ortiz

3 E. Insua

7 F. Montiel

5 F. Marin

8 E. Trinidad

11 R. E. Monserrat

9 M. Albertengo

10 L. Castillo

Coach · Leonardo Fernandez

Substitutes

12 · A. Alcorcel

13 · C. Gaston

16 · T. Buenrostro

14 · F. Miranda

18 · F. Zicarelli

15 · L. Gonzalez

17 · L. Juarez

19 · M. Mamani

20 · N. Toloza

Tristan Suarez

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bigo

4 B. Aguilar

2 M. Guzman

6 A. Baldi

3 A. Molina

7 M. Guillen

5 N. Sanchez

8 N. Del Priore

10 D. Becker

9 R. Conechny

11 J. Beron

Coach · Jose Martinez

Substitutes

12 · J. Mendive

15 · D. Mastrangelo

14 · M. Olguin

13 · S. Aquino

18 · K. Colli

16 · M. Luayza

17 · L. Noriega

19 · S. Ramirez

20 · A. Gallo

Our number · colegiales winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Colegiales a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · colegiales win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colegiales win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	35%	35%	0
Tristan Suarez win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Both teams to score	35%	38%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	10%	14%	−4
Colegiales or draw	73%	71%	+2
Colegiales clean sheet	46%	–	–
Tristan Suarez clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.5%

0123450 18.5 12.3 5.4 1 15.5 14.2 5.2 2 8.1 6.3 2.5 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colegiales down, Tristan Suarez across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,892 Primera Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 576 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colegiales at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tristan Suarez away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Colegiales, 0.79 for Tristan Suarez. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TRI 0–0 COL · TRI 2–2 COL · COL 1–0 TRI

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

COLEGIALES

WLWLWW3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

TRISTAN SUAREZ

WDDDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
3	Tristan Suarez	32	+17	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	32	+8	48
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
14	Colegiales	32	+1	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	32	−3	42
20	Los Andes	32	+2	40
21	Quilmes	32	+3	39
22	Almagro	32	−10	38
23	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
24	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
25	San Telmo	32	−8	37
26	Agropecuario	32	−9	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Chacarita Juniors	32	−9	33
32	Central Norte	32	−9	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23