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Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela

Colegiales

1–1Full time

Atletico DE Rafaela

Primera Nacional · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio de Colegiales

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Colegiales 1–1 Atletico DE Rafaela COLEGIALES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colegiales win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colegiales win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Colegiales 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
1′KICK-OFF Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Atletico DE Rafaela
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Atletico DE Rafaela
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Colegiales win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
38′We said Colegiales at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–61
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Colegiales win 41%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Colegiales 0–1 Atletico DE Rafaela
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Colegiales win: 49% at kick-off, 12% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Atletico DE Rafaela win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Draw 44%)
39′A goal for Atletico DE Rafaela on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–27–62
40′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–27–62
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Atletico DE Rafaela
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Atletico DE Rafaela
45′HALF-TIME Colegiales 0–1 Atletico DE Rafaela
45′SECOND HALF Colegiales 0–1 Atletico DE Rafaela
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Colegiales win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
51′We said Colegiales at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–25–67
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Colegiales · On: R. E. Monserrat · Off: L. Gonzalez
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Colegiales · On: L. Juarez · Off: F. Montiel
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: J. Bonifacio
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: J. Capurro · Off: E. Pepino
60′🟨 YELLOW Colegiales
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' F. Rivero · Colegiales
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: J. Cavallaro · Off: A. Obando
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colegiales · On: F. Zicarelli · Off: E. Trinidad
64′We said Colegiales at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
76′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Atletico DE Rafaela
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Colegiales · On: N. Toloza · Off: M. Albertengo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' J. Capurro · Atletico DE Rafaela
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Colegiales · On: M. Mamani · Off: L. Castillo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: R. Ramirez · Off: L. Albertengo
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Colegiales 1–1 Atletico DE Rafaela
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Atletico DE Rafaela win 90%)
83′F. Ponce scores for Atletico DE Rafaela on 38′. 1–1 · 9–87–5
86′81′: N. Toloza on the scoresheet for Colegiales, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–90–3
90′81′: N. Toloza on the scoresheet for Colegiales. 1–1 · 4–94–2
90′1–1 at the end. Our 49% on Colegiales misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Colegiales
91′N. Toloza scores for Colegiales on 83′. 1–1 · 3–95–2
91′PENALTY MISSED · 89' N. Toloza · Colegiales
94′A goal for Colegiales on 90′. 1–1 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Colegiales 1–1 Atletico DE Rafaela
FTColegiales 1–1 Atletico DE Rafaela · Colegiales win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colegiales are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colegiales 49%, draw 32%, Atletico DE Rafaela 19%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Colegiales v Atletico DE RafaelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Colegiales win49%

Draw32%

Atletico DE Rafaela win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio de Colegiales

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colegiales

Atletico DE Rafaela

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colegiales winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Colegiales a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela~~1.24 – 0.66

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 50 v 45~~7 v 11

~~The market · Colegiales win~~54% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colegiales win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colegiales win	49%	54%	−5
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Atletico DE Rafaela win	19%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Both teams to score	35%	37%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−4
Colegiales or draw	81%	83%	−2
Colegiales clean sheet	52%	–	–
Atletico DE Rafaela clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%

0123450 16.2 8.8 3.3 1 17.3 13.2 4.0 2 11.4 7.5 2.5 3 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colegiales down, Atletico DE Rafaela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colegiales at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico DE Rafaela away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Colegiales, 0.66 for Atletico DE Rafaela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

COLEGIALES

WLWWDW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA

LWLLLW1–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	34	+18	62
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	+3	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
12	Almagro	34	−10	41
13	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26