Club Atlético Güemes v Almagro prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Club Atlético Güemes 2–1 Almagro CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Atlético Güemes win~~40%

~~The market said~~13%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Atlético Güemes win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Club Atlético Güemes was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–33–27
1′KICK-OFF Club Atlético Güemes v Almagro
15′Club Atlético Güemes find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Club Atlético Güemes 1–0 Almagro
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
17′We published Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
19′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Almagro · On: J. Orlando · Off: T. Macies
21′A goal for Almagro on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–37–26
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Club Atlético Güemes 1–1 Almagro
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
23′E. Martinez scores for Almagro on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–38–26
28′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Almagro · On: F. Pinto · Off: S. Chamorro
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Almagro
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Club Atlético Güemes win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Club Atlético Güemes 1–1 Almagro
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
46′SECOND HALF Club Atlético Güemes 1–1 Almagro
52′We said Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–51–21
61′We said Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Almagro
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
71′Club Atlético Güemes score on 70′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 86–12–1
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Club Atlético Güemes 2–1 Almagro
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Club Atlético Güemes win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
72′We published Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–11–1
77′We published Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Club Atlético Güemes win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Almagro · On: F. Bustamante · Off: E. Martinez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Almagro · On: C. Salto · Off: J. Bustos
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Club Atlético Güemes · On: A. Pinto · Off: S. Farrera
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Almagro · On: T. Dornell · Off: F. De La Vega
84′We published Club Atlético Güemes at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Almagro
92′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Club Atlético Güemes · On: L. Guinazu · Off: J. Carranza
FTFULL TIME Club Atlético Güemes 2–1 Almagro
FTClub Atlético Güemes 2–1 Almagro · Club Atlético Güemes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Atlético Güemes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Atlético Güemes 40%, draw 33%, Almagro 27%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Club Atlético Güemes v AlmagroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Atlético Güemes win40%

Draw33%

Almagro win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Line-ups

Club Atlético Güemes

Almagro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Atlético Güemes

Almagro

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Club Atlético Güemes

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Finochietto

4 M. Gerez

2 A. Gonzalez

6 F. Melillan

3 R. Arnay

8 J. Juarez

5 G. Baier

7 S. Farrera

10 G. Pugliese

9 C. Leineker

11 J. Carranza

Coach · Juan Vita

Substitutes

16 · M. Cassini

13 · R. Silisque

12 · T. Palleres

17 · A. Tevez

14 · L. Guinazu

15 · A. Pinto

18 · B. Gerez

Almagro

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Gonzalez

4 G. Asis

2 S. Chamorro

6 M. Cortave

3 E. Silcan

5 J. Vitale

8 E. Martinez

7 J. Marchioni

11 T. Macies

10 J. Bustos

9 F. De La Vega

Coach · Carlos Mayor

Substitutes

12 · S. Anchoverri

13 · F. Marco

14 · J. Flores

15 · P. Blanco

16 · F. Pinto

17 · F. Bustamante

18 · T. Dornell

19 · J. Orlando

20 · C. Salto

Our number · club atlético güemes winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market13%

Us40%

~~Market~~13%

We make Club Atlético Güemes a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 13%. We are 27 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Atlético Güemes v Almagro~~1.13 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 41~~18 v 12

~~The market · Club Atlético Güemes win~~13% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Atlético Güemes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 13% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Atlético Güemes win	40%	13%	+27
Draw	33%	26%	+7
Almagro win	27%	61%	−34
Over 2.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	37%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−5
Club Atlético Güemes or draw	73%	39%	+34
Club Atlético Güemes clean sheet	42%	–	–
Almagro clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 10.6 5.2 1 13.9 14.3 5.8 2 8.6 7.4 3.3 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Atlético Güemes down, Almagro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,918 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.9% of games this season, across 602 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Atlético Güemes at home: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Almagro away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Club Atlético Güemes, 0.88 for Almagro. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALM 2–0 CLU · ALM 0–1 CLU · CLU 1–1 ALM · CLU 1–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

ALMAGRO

LDLLWW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	34	+18	62
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	34	+7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	33	+12	51
7	Colegiales	34	+4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23