Ciudad de Bolívar v San Telmo prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:00

Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ciudad de Bolívar win~~47%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ciudad de Bolívar win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ciudad de Bolívar was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
1′KICK-OFF Ciudad de Bolívar v San Telmo
17′🟨 YELLOW · 18' San Telmo
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Ciudad de Bolívar
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Ciudad de Bolívar
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' San Telmo
31′🟨 YELLOW · 33' San Telmo
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' San Telmo
45′HALF-TIME Ciudad de Bolívar 0–0 San Telmo
45′SECOND HALF Ciudad de Bolívar 0–0 San Telmo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 52' San Telmo · On: J. Porto · Off: M. Batallini
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: K. Caraballo · Off: M. Gutierrez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: T. Guiacobini · Off: F. Mucignat
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' San Telmo
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' San Telmo
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: B. Quintana · Off: A. Gonzalez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' San Telmo · On: I. Larthirigoyen · Off: R. Uriburu
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' San Telmo · On: F. Baez · Off: F. Roncaglia
FTFULL TIME Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo
FTCiudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo · Ciudad de Bolívar win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ciudad de Bolívar win47%

Draw31%

San Telmo win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:30

VenueEstadio Municipal Eva Peron

Line-ups

Ciudad de Bolívar

San Telmo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ciudad de Bolívar

San Telmo

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ciudad de Bolívar

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Rufinetti

4 A. Paredes

2 E. Navarro

6 A. Carrion

3 M. Gridel

5 A. Diaz

8 N. Yeri

7 F. Mucignat

10 A. Gonzalez

11 M. Gutierrez

9 G. Sanchez

Coach · Diego Funes

Substitutes

12 · L. Ruiz

13 · K. Caraballo

14 · T. Fernandez

15 · B. Quintana

16 · T. Guiacobini

17 · M. Sotelo

18 · J. Ledesma

19 · A. Diaz

20 · F. Ilarregui

San Telmo

Formation not confirmed

1 J. C. Enrico

8 R. Dinocco

4 E. Diaz

3 F. Roncaglia

2 L. Pollacchi

6 P. Romero

11 M. Gonzalez

7 R. Uriburu

5 E. Britez

9 N. Molina

10 M. Batallini

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Rial

13 · A. Jazbec

14 · G. Paredes

15 · J. Iritier

16 · J. Porto

17 · I. Larthirigoyen

18 · F. Baez

19 · R. Gamarra

20 · C. Nunez

Our number · ciudad de bolívar winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Ciudad de Bolívar a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ciudad de bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciudad de Bolívar win	47%	52%	−5
Draw	31%	29%	+3
San Telmo win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	42%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	62%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Ciudad de Bolívar or draw	78%	81%	−3
Ciudad de Bolívar clean sheet	46%	–	–
San Telmo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 14.0 8.8 3.9 1 15.1 13.7 4.9 2 10.4 8.0 3.2 3 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciudad de Bolívar down, San Telmo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciudad de Bolívar at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Telmo away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Ciudad de Bolívar, 0.78 for San Telmo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 CIU

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR

WLDLWW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

SAN TELMO

LDWLWW0–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23