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Ciudad de Bolívar v Colon Santa Fe

Ciudad de Bolívar

0–2Full time

Colon Santa Fe

Primera Nacional · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Municipal Eva Peron

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:32

Ciudad de Bolívar 0–2 Colon Santa Fe CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ciudad de Bolívar win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.717

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ciudad de Bolívar win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF Ciudad de Bolívar v Colon Santa Fe
14′🟨 YELLOW Ciudad de Bolívar
15′Much as we predicted: Ciudad de Bolívar was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–37–24
18′🟨 YELLOW · 13' A. Paredes · Ciudad de Bolívar
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ciudad de Bolívar win 38%)
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' N. Yeri · Ciudad de Bolívar
38′🟨 YELLOW · 34' F. Mucignat · Ciudad de Bolívar
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ciudad de Bolívar win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Ciudad de Bolívar 0–0 Colon Santa Fe
45′SECOND HALF Ciudad de Bolívar 0–0 Colon Santa Fe
48′We said Ciudad de Bolívar at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
60′We said Ciudad de Bolívar at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–16
61′We said Ciudad de Bolívar at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
61′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 4–20–76
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ciudad de Bolívar 0–1 Colon Santa Fe
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Ciudad de Bolívar win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Colon Santa Fe win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 59%)
62′Colon Santa Fe find the net on 46′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–19–77
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Ciudad de Bolívar win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Colon Santa Fe
77′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: T. Fernandez · Off: F. Mucignat
78′Colon Santa Fe ahead on 61′ through I. Lago. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–88
78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: K. Caraballo · Off: A. Paredes
80′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Colon Santa Fe · On: D. Sarmiento · Off: F. Garcia
80′🟨 YELLOW · 68' A. Toledo · Colon Santa Fe
80′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ciudad de Bolívar · On: F. Ilarregui · Off: T. Guiacobini
82′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ciudad de Bolívar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Colon Santa Fe · On: E. Beltran · Off: D. Sarmiento
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ciudad de Bolívar 0–2 Colon Santa Fe
90′A goal for Colon Santa Fe on 74′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Ciudad de Bolívar at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 83' A. Carrion · Ciudad de Bolívar
93′A. Toledo scores for Colon Santa Fe on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ciudad de Bolívar 0–2 Colon Santa Fe
FTCiudad de Bolívar 0–2 Colon Santa Fe · Ciudad de Bolívar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ciudad de Bolívar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ciudad de Bolívar 41%, draw 34%, Colon Santa Fe 25%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Ciudad de Bolívar v Colon Santa FeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ciudad de Bolívar win41%

Draw34%

Colon Santa Fe win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Municipal Eva Peron

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ciudad de Bolívar

Colon Santa Fe

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ciudad de bolívar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Ciudad de Bolívar a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ciudad de Bolívar v Colon Santa Fe~~1.07 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 51 v 54~~6 v 5

~~The market · Ciudad de Bolívar win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ciudad de Bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciudad de Bolívar win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Colon Santa Fe win	25%	31%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	12%	15%	−3
Ciudad de Bolívar or draw	75%	69%	+6
Ciudad de Bolívar clean sheet	46%	–	–
Colon Santa Fe clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%

0123450 17.2 11.0 4.7 1 15.7 14.1 5.0 2 9.0 6.9 2.7 3 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciudad de Bolívar down, Colon Santa Fe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,931 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 615 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciudad de Bolívar at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Colon Santa Fe away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Ciudad de Bolívar, 0.77 for Colon Santa Fe. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–0 CIU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR

DLWWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

COLON SANTA FE

LWDWDD0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32