Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu CHACARITA JUNIORS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chacarita Juniors win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.530

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chacarita Juniors win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chacarita Juniors was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–33–27
1′KICK-OFF Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu
25′A goal for Chacarita Juniors on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
25′We published Chacarita Juniors at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Chacarita Juniors win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu
45′SECOND HALF Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Maipu · On: B. Orosco · Off: T. Silva
53′We published Chacarita Juniors at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Chacarita Juniors win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Chacarita Juniors · On: M. Leyendeker · Off: L. Alfonzo
68′We published Chacarita Juniors at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chacarita Juniors · On: M. Sanabria · Off: C. Guanca
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chacarita Juniors · On: M. Cuero · Off: M. Melendez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Maipu · On: M. Ortale · Off: N. Fernandez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Maipu · On: M. Viguet · Off: M. Bonfigli
77′We published Chacarita Juniors at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Chacarita Juniors win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chacarita Juniors · On: T. Migliore · Off: F. Facello
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Chacarita Juniors · On: L. Perdomo · Off: A. Cuello
84′We published Chacarita Juniors at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Deportivo Maipu · On: L. Cabrera · Off: J. Gobetto
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Chacarita Juniors at 41% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu
FTChacarita Juniors 1–0 Deportivo Maipu · Chacarita Juniors win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chacarita Juniors are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chacarita Juniors 41%, draw 32%, Deportivo Maipu 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo MaipuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chacarita Juniors win41%

Draw32%

Deportivo Maipu win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio de Chacarita Juniors

Line-ups

Chacarita Juniors

Deportivo Maipu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chacarita Juniors

Deportivo Maipu

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chacarita Juniors

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Losas

4 F. Facello

2 S. Acosta

6 N. Pantaleone

3 N. Chaves

5 T. Perez

11 L. Alfonzo

10 C. Guanca

8 A. Cuello

7 M. Melendez

9 A. Dominguez

Coach · Sergio Rondina

Substitutes

12 · G. Fernandez

13 · T. Migliore

14 · M. Leyendeker

15 · L. Perdomo

16 · D. Duran

17 · M. Sanabria

18 · M. Cuero

19 · F. Cristaldo

20 · T. Zarate

Deportivo Maipu

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Galardi

4 L. Faggioli

2 S. Paulini

6 A. R. Aguero Gimenez

3 N. Fernandez

11 M. Bonfigli

8 E. Perez

5 J. Gobetto

7 F. Saccone

10 T. Silva

9 J. Giacone

Coach · Alexis Matteo

Substitutes

12 · L. Peraggini

13 · T. Ferreyra

14 · J. de la Reta

15 · M. Ortale

16 · A. Vera

17 · B. Orosco

18 · D. Yavante Gaitan

19 · M. Viguet

20 · L. Cabrera

Our number · chacarita juniors winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Chacarita Juniors a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu~~1.16 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 33 v 48~~17 v 7

~~The market · Chacarita Juniors win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chacarita Juniors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chacarita Juniors win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	32%	32%	0
Deportivo Maipu win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Both teams to score	41%	40%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	16%	−1
Chacarita Juniors or draw	73%	77%	−4
Chacarita Juniors clean sheet	41%	–	–
Deportivo Maipu clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 10.3 5.1 1 13.7 14.3 5.9 2 8.6 7.6 3.4 3 3.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chacarita Juniors down, Deportivo Maipu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chacarita Juniors at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Maipu away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Chacarita Juniors, 0.89 for Deportivo Maipu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–2 CHA · DEP 0–2 CHA · CHA 2–0 DEP · CHA 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

CHACARITA JUNIORS

LLWLWL0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO MAIPU

DDDWWD0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	34	+7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	33	+12	51
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	33	−3	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23