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Central Norte v Ferro Carril Oeste

Central Norte

1–1Full time

Ferro Carril Oeste

Primera Nacional · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste CENTRAL NORTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Central Norte win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 49 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Central Norte win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Central Norte 35% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
20′N. Reniero scores for Ferro Carril Oeste on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–23–66
28′23′ and it is 1–1: F. Vedoya on the scoresheet for Central Norte. 1–1 · 32–40–28
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ferro Carril Oeste win 28%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Central Norte win: 35% at kick-off, 11% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Ferro Carril Oeste win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Central Norte win: 35% at kick-off, 32% now
41′23′ and it is 1–1: F. Vedoya on the scoresheet for Central Norte. 1–1 · 29–46–25
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Central Norte win: 35% at kick-off, 11% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Ferro Carril Oeste win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Central Norte win: 35% at kick-off, 32% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ferro Carril Oeste win 28%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Central Norte win: 35% at kick-off, 29% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Ferro Carril Oeste win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste
45′SECOND HALF Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste
47′⚽ GOAL · 9' Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste · N. Reniero
47′⚽ GOAL · 23' Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste · F. Vedoya
47′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: L. Pena Biafore · Off: J. Orellana
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: S. Garcia · Off: N. Reniero
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Central Norte
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: N. Gomez · Off: M. Kabalin
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Central Norte · On: S. Quiroga · Off: M. Moravec
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ferro Carril Oeste · On: G. Castellani · Off: E. Hoyos
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Central Norte · On: T. Castro · Off: M. Rosales
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Central Norte win 28%)
FTFULL TIME Central Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste
FTCentral Norte 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste · Central Norte win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Central Norte win35%

Draw35%

Ferro Carril Oeste win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Line-ups

Central Norte

Ferro Carril Oeste

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Central Norte

Ferro Carril Oeste

7Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Central Norte

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Hass

2 E. Calderon

4 M. Rosales

3 L. Felissia

6 A. Lamosa

5 M. Villarreal

7 M. Moravec

8 G. Mancuso

11 P. Sanz

9 F. Borda

10 F. Vedoya

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · E. Vazquez

13 · A. Pucheta

14 · A. Aleo

15 · S. Quiroga

16 · A. Bustinduy

17 · T. Castro

18 · T. Taobas

19 · J. Mateo

20 · K. Isa Luna

Ferro Carril Oeste

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Monetti

2 F. Tevez

4 K. Nazareno

6 J. Orellana

7 A. Gonzalez

5 F. Obradovich

3 E. Ozuna

8 M. Kabalin

10 E. Hoyos

11 E. Dening

9 N. Reniero

Coach · Juan Sara

Substitutes

13 · L. Pena Biafore

14 · S. Corda

15 · G. Olguin

16 · G. Castellani

17 · S. Garcia

18 · N. Gomez

19 · P. Uriel

20 · L. Parisi

12 · L. Ruiz

Our number · central norte winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Central Norte a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Norte win	35%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Ferro Carril Oeste win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Central Norte or draw	70%	–	–
Central Norte clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ferro Carril Oeste clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.0%

0123450 17.0 12.5 6.0 1 14.1 14.4 5.8 2 7.5 6.5 2.8 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Norte down, Ferro Carril Oeste across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Norte at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ferro Carril Oeste away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Central Norte, 0.88 for Ferro Carril Oeste. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FER 1–0 CEN

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

CENTRAL NORTE

DDDLDD2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

FERRO CARRIL OESTE

DDDWWL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23