Central Norte v Acassuso prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Central NorteDrawAcassuso

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Central Norte 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Central Norte are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Norte 42%, draw 35%, Acassuso 23%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Central Norte v AcassusoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Central Norte win42%

Draw35%

Acassuso win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Norte

Acassuso

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · central norte winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Central Norte a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Norte v Acassuso~~1.05 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 33~~15 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Norte win	42%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Acassuso win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Central Norte or draw	77%	–	–
Central Norte clean sheet	49%	–	–
Acassuso clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.5%

0123450 18.5 11.0 4.4 1 16.8 13.8 4.5 2 9.4 6.7 2.4 3 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Norte down, Acassuso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,932 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 616 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Norte at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Acassuso away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Central Norte, 0.71 for Acassuso. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ACA 2–1 CEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

CENTRAL NORTE

DLDDDW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

ACASSUSO

LWWLWD0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	+7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Chaco For Ever	35	0	43
10	Los Andes	34	+1	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32