CA Estudiantes v Los Andes prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CA EstudiantesDrawLos Andes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · CA Estudiantes 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CA Estudiantes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CA Estudiantes 48%, draw 34%, Los Andes 18%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on CA Estudiantes v Los AndesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CA Estudiantes win48%

Draw34%

Los Andes win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Caseros

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CA Estudiantes

Los Andes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ca estudiantes winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make CA Estudiantes a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CA Estudiantes v Los Andes~~1.15 – 0.61

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 41~~8 v 9

~~The market · CA Estudiantes win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CA Estudiantes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA Estudiantes win	48%	57%	−9
Draw	34%	29%	+5
Los Andes win	18%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Both teams to score	32%	31%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	10%	13%	−3
CA Estudiantes or draw	82%	86%	−4
CA Estudiantes clean sheet	55%	–	–
Los Andes clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%

0123450 18.5 9.4 3.2 1 18.7 13.0 3.6 2 11.4 6.8 2.1 3 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA Estudiantes down, Los Andes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,931 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 615 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA Estudiantes at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Los Andes away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for CA Estudiantes, 0.61 for Los Andes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LOS 0–0 CAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

CA ESTUDIANTES

WWWLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–6

LOS ANDES

DLWLLD1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32