CA Estudiantes v Deportivo Moron prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

CA Estudiantes 2–0 Deportivo Moron CA ESTUDIANTES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CA Estudiantes win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.527

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.688

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CA Estudiantes win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CA Estudiantes 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
8′Little has changed for our model: CA Estudiantes 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–26
53′53′ and it is 1–0: CA Estudiantes have scored. 1–0 · 81–16–3
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' CA Estudiantes · On: M. Nunez · Off: E. Acosta
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' CA Estudiantes · On: L. Silva · Off: I. Vera
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
71′53′ and it is 1–0: F. Ardiles on the scoresheet for CA Estudiantes. 1–0 · 88–11–1
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Moron · On: E. Contreras · Off: E. Iniguez
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Moron · On: F. Toloza · Off: M. Bittolo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' CA Estudiantes
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CA Estudiantes · On: T. Squie · Off: F. Quinteros
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CA Estudiantes · On: F. Dure · Off: F. Ardiles
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' CA Estudiantes
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' L. Silva · CA Estudiantes
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' CA Estudiantes 2–0 Deportivo Moron
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' CA Estudiantes 2–0 Deportivo Moron · M. Nunez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' CA Estudiantes
90′CA Estudiantes ahead on 87′ through M. Nunez. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Deportivo Moron
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' CA Estudiantes
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' CA Estudiantes win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
FTFULL TIME CA Estudiantes 2–0 Deportivo Moron
FTCA Estudiantes 2–0 Deportivo Moron · CA Estudiantes win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CA Estudiantes win41%

Draw34%

Deportivo Moron win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Caseros

Line-ups

CA Estudiantes

Deportivo Moron

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CA Estudiantes

Deportivo Moron

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CA Estudiantes

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lungarzo

2 J. Benitez

3 F. Quinteros

4 M. Albarracin

6 Caro Nicolas

5 R. Melo

7 F. Ardiles

10 I. Vera

11 E. Acosta

8 F. Sena

9 D. Rostagno

Coach · Alfredo Grelak

Substitutes

12 · F. Vila

13 · A. Berizovsky

14 · F. Dure

15 · T. Squie

16 · B. Sanchez de Leon

17 · L. Silva

18 · S. Camacho

19 · M. Nunez

20 · E. Almiron

Deportivo Moron

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Salva

2 B. Salvareschi

3 I. M. Vaquero

4 E. Iniguez

6 E. Lazza

5 M. Gonzalez

8 E. Franco

10 S. Kubiszyn

11 M. Bittolo

7 F. Fagundez

9 M. Levato

Coach · Walter Otta

Substitutes

12 · F. Diaz

13 · F. Flores

14 · L. Cardozo

15 · M. Benitez

16 · J. Zappacosta

17 · G. Berterame

18 · J. Esquivel

19 · E. Contreras

20 · F. Toloza

Our number · ca estudiantes winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make CA Estudiantes a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ca estudiantes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA Estudiantes win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	34%	36%	−2
Deportivo Moron win	25%	32%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Both teams to score	37%	37%	0
Over 1.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	13%	0
CA Estudiantes or draw	75%	68%	+7
CA Estudiantes clean sheet	46%	–	–
Deportivo Moron clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.7%

0123450 16.7 10.9 4.8 1 15.5 14.1 5.1 2 9.0 7.0 2.8 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA Estudiantes down, Deportivo Moron across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA Estudiantes at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Moron away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for CA Estudiantes, 0.79 for Deportivo Moron. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–0 CAE · DEP 1–1 CAE · CAE 0–1 DEP · DEP 0–1 CAE

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

CA ESTUDIANTES

DLWWWL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO MORON

WWWLLW2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23