Atletico Mitre v Godoy Cruz prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico MitreDrawGodoy Cruz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Mitre 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Mitre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Mitre 38%, draw 32%, Godoy Cruz 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Mitre v Godoy CruzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Mitre win38%

Draw32%

Godoy Cruz win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Aurinegro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Mitre

Godoy Cruz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico mitre winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market26%

Us38%

~~Market~~26%

We make Atletico Mitre a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Mitre v Godoy Cruz~~1.13 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 39 v 60~~12 v 2

~~The market · Atletico Mitre win~~26% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Mitre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Mitre win	38%	26%	+12
Draw	32%	33%	−1
Godoy Cruz win	30%	41%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	35%	30%	+5
Both teams to score	43%	38%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	56%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	13%	+3
Atletico Mitre or draw	70%	59%	+11
Atletico Mitre clean sheet	38%	–	–
Godoy Cruz clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.6 10.6 5.7 1 12.7 14.4 6.4 2.1 2 7.8 7.5 3.6 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Mitre down, Godoy Cruz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Mitre at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Godoy Cruz away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Atletico Mitre, 0.97 for Godoy Cruz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GOD 2–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

ATLETICO MITRE

DLLWDW0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

GODOY CRUZ

WWDWDW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 6–3

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32