Atletico Mitre v Colon Santa Fe prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Atletico Mitre 0–0 Colon Santa Fe ATLETICO MITRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atletico Mitre win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.660

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Mitre win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Mitre was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
55′Much as we predicted: Atletico Mitre was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 30% now. 0–0 · 30–48–22
61′We said Atletico Mitre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–60–18
69′We said Atletico Mitre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–68–14
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Colon Santa Fe · On: M. Munoz · Off: A. Bonansea
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Colon Santa Fe · On: M. Munoz · Off: A. Bonansea
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
82′We said Atletico Mitre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–85–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Atletico Mitre win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atletico Mitre · On: F. J. Gorla · Off: O. Garrido
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atletico Mitre · On: E. Avaro · Off: Y. Cabral
FTFULL TIME Atletico Mitre 0–0 Colon Santa Fe
FTAtletico Mitre 0–0 Colon Santa Fe · Atletico Mitre win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico Mitre win39%

Draw34%

Colon Santa Fe win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Aurinegro

Line-ups

Atletico Mitre

Colon Santa Fe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Mitre

Colon Santa Fe

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Mitre

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Pietrobono

2 P. Minissale

3 F. Ferrari

4 B. Mieres

6 M. Romero

5 J. Alessandroni

7 Y. Cabral

8 M. Vazquez

10 M. Maldonado

11 O. Garrido

9 M. Machado

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Ledesma

13 · G. Herdt

14 · L. Correa

15 · A. Lopez

16 · R. Gonzalez

17 · E. Avaro

18 · M. Montenegro

19 · F. J. Gorla

20 · J. Zarate

Colon Santa Fe

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Gimenez

2 N. Thaller

3 F. Castet

4 M. Peinipil

6 F. Rasmussen

5 F. Lertora

8 I. Antonio

10 I. Lago

11 J. Marcioni

7 A. Toledo

9 A. Bonansea

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Paredes

13 · S. Olmedo

14 · Z. Ibarra

15 · C. Ibarra

16 · J. Buosi

17 · E. Beltran

18 · L. Garate

19 · D. Sarmiento

20 · M. Munoz

Our number · atletico mitre winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Atletico Mitre a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Mitre win	39%	34%	+4
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Colon Santa Fe win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	57%	58%	0
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−3
Atletico Mitre or draw	73%	68%	+5
Atletico Mitre clean sheet	44%	–	–
Colon Santa Fe clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%

0123450 16.5 11.5 5.3 1 14.8 14.3 5.5 2 8.4 6.9 2.9 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Mitre down, Colon Santa Fe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Mitre at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Colon Santa Fe away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Atletico Mitre, 0.83 for Colon Santa Fe. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 ATL · COL 0–1 ATL · ATL 0–1 COL · COL 1–2 ATL

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

ATLETICO MITRE

DDDLLW2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

COLON SANTA FE

LLLWDW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23