Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 03:35

Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes ATLETICO DE RAFAELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico DE Rafaela win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico DE Rafaela win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico DE Rafaela 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–29
1′KICK-OFF Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes
3′Atletico DE Rafaela find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–9
3′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–9
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Atletico DE Rafaela win: 37% at kick-off, 72% now
30′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
31′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Quilmes
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Atletico DE Rafaela win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Quilmes
45′HALF-TIME Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes
46′SECOND HALF Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes
52′Atletico DE Rafaela are down to ten from 51′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 80–17–3
52′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Atletico DE Rafaela
53′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Quilmes · On: G. Vazquez · Off: A. Ortega
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Atletico DE Rafaela
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Quilmes
66′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: L. Flores · Off: L. Albertengo
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Atletico DE Rafaela
69′A second red card for Atletico DE Rafaela on 68′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 86–13–1
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Atletico DE Rafaela win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Atletico DE Rafaela
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: J. Capurro · Off: E. Pepino
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atletico DE Rafaela · On: R. Ramirez · Off: A. Obando
76′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Quilmes · On: R. Martinez · Off: J. Aimale
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Quilmes · On: N. Colazo · Off: J. Novillo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Quilmes
81′Red cards for both sides: Atletico DE Rafaela down to nine, Quilmes to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 93–7–0
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Quilmes
85′We said Atletico DE Rafaela at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Quilmes · On: M. Fernandez · Off: F. Yozwiak
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Atletico DE Rafaela win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes
FTAtletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes · Atletico DE Rafaela win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atletico DE Rafaela just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico DE Rafaela 37%, draw 35%, Quilmes 28%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Atletico DE Rafaela v QuilmesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico DE Rafaela win37%

Draw35%

Quilmes win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEstadio Nuevo Monumental

Line-ups

Atletico DE Rafaela

Quilmes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico DE Rafaela

Quilmes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
14	Quilmes	33	+2	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico DE Rafaela

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bergia

4 A. Solveyra

2 U. Yegros

6 F. Ponce

3 E. Wuattier

8 E. Pepino

5 F. Soloa

11 N. Cainelli

7 M. Moreno

10 A. Obando

9 L. Albertengo

Coach · Fernando Quiroz

Substitutes

19 · J. Bonifacio

15 · J. Capurro

17 · L. Flores

12 · R. Martinez

13 · V. Mondino

20 · I. Protti

14 · R. Ramirez

18 · A. Rodriguez

16 · R. Suarez

Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Marinelli

4 S. Rodriguez

2 L. Romeo

6 J. Novillo

3 A. Bindella

5 F. Yozwiak

8 A. Ortega

11 J. Aimale

10 A. Batista

7 G. Vega

9 A. Spetale

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Canadell

16 · N. Colazo

20 · J. Coronel

18 · M. Fernandez

15 · R. Martinez

13 · T. Ortega

14 · M. Vallejos

19 · G. Vazquez

17 · J. Yangali

Our number · atletico de rafaela winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Atletico DE Rafaela a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes~~0.98 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 42 v 39~~11 v 14

~~The market · Atletico DE Rafaela win~~39% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico DE Rafaela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico DE Rafaela win	37%	39%	−2
Draw	35%	32%	+3
Quilmes win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Both teams to score	35%	43%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	54%	61%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	11%	17%	−6
Atletico DE Rafaela or draw	72%	71%	+1
Atletico DE Rafaela clean sheet	45%	–	–
Quilmes clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 12.3 5.4 1 15.2 14.2 5.2 2 8.1 6.4 2.6 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico DE Rafaela down, Quilmes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico DE Rafaela at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Quilmes away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Atletico DE Rafaela, 0.80 for Quilmes. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~QUI 2–0 ATL · QUI 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–0 QUI · ATL 1–2 QUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA

LLWLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–4

QUILMES

LWLWDL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	33	+9	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Midland	33	+12	51
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	33	+4	49
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
14	Quilmes	33	+2	39
15	Patronato	33	−3	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23