Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atlanta 1–0 San Martin Tucuman ATLANTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlanta win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlanta win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlanta was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
27′Much as we predicted: Atlanta was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–39–24
58′We said Atlanta at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–57–18
77′P. Ostachuk scores for Atlanta on 74′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–9–1
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Atlanta win 31%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Atlanta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Atlanta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Atlanta win 31%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Atlanta win 31%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Atlanta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Atlanta win 31%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Atlanta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Atlanta
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Atlanta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Atlanta win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Atlanta win 31%)
FTFULL TIME Atlanta 1–0 San Martin Tucuman
FTAtlanta 1–0 San Martin Tucuman · Atlanta win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlanta win41%

Draw34%

San Martin Tucuman win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

Line-ups

Atlanta

San Martin Tucuman

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlanta

San Martin Tucuman

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlanta

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Rago

4 M. Garcia

2 R. Moreira

6 T. Rojas

3 R. Sosa

8 T. Castro Ponce

5 B. Rivero

11 F. Romero

7 F. Alvarez

9 A. Quintana

10 I. Rodriguez

Coach · Cristian Pellerano

Substitutes

12 · L. Lopez Kaleniuk

13 · L. Galeano

14 · P. Ostachuk

15 · D. Arguello

16 · G. Mendoza

17 · F. Bisanz

18 · C. Bernardi

19 · F. Caceres

20 · G. Miranda

San Martin Tucuman

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Sand

4 V. Salazar

2 G. Rodriguez

6 E. Parnisari

3 R. Ayala

8 A. Graneros

5 S. Brinone

7 A. Veliez

10 G. Carabajal

9 M. Veron

11 B. Cabrera

Coach · Alejandro Orfila

Substitutes

12 · N. Manganelli

13 · A. Galvan

14 · N. Castro

15 · L. Rodriguez

16 · A. Cisnero

17 · J. Juarez

18 · M. Garcia

19 · A. Paz

20 · J. P. Valdez

Our number · atlanta winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Atlanta a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlanta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlanta win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	34%	32%	+2
San Martin Tucuman win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Both teams to score	37%	40%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−3
Atlanta or draw	75%	75%	0
Atlanta clean sheet	45%	–	–
San Martin Tucuman clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%

0123450 16.5 10.9 4.8 1 15.3 14.1 5.2 2 9.0 7.1 2.8 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta down, San Martin Tucuman across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlanta at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin Tucuman away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Atlanta, 0.80 for San Martin Tucuman. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 ATL · SAN 4–0 ATL · ATL 3–1 SAN · SAN 0–0 ATL

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

ATLANTA

LWWDWW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN

DLWLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23