Atlanta v Midland prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AtlantaDrawMidland

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlanta 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlanta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlanta 44%, draw 32%, Midland 24%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Atlanta v MidlandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Atlanta win44%

Draw32%

Midland win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlanta

Midland

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
6	Midland	34	+11	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlanta winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Atlanta a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlanta v Midland~~1.20 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 58 v 51~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlanta win	44%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Midland win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Atlanta or draw	76%	–	–
Atlanta clean sheet	45%	–	–
Midland clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.7 9.7 4.4 1 14.8 14.0 5.3 2 9.6 7.7 3.2 3 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta down, Midland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,933 Primera Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.2% of games this season, across 617 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlanta at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Midland away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Atlanta, 0.81 for Midland. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MID 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 12 Sept

ATLANTA

WDWWWL2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

MIDLAND

WWLDWL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	35	+18	63
2	Temperley	34	+13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	+9	58
4	Atlanta	34	+7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	34	+11	51
7	Colegiales	35	+4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	+7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	+2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	+2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	−6	46
12	Quilmes	35	+2	42
13	Almagro	35	−10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	−11	40
15	Patronato	34	−4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	−9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	−9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	−32	26