Almirante Brown v San Miguel prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

Almirante Brown 1–1 San Miguel ALMIRANTE BROWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almirante Brown win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almirante Brown win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Almirante Brown 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–32–22
32′Almirante Brown find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–4
49′We said Almirante Brown at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–3
50′The goal count is tracking the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–2
68′Almirante Brown ahead on 31′ through L. Pascual. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–11–1
88′T. Diaz scores for San Miguel on 83′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–96–1
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Almirante Brown win 2%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Almirante Brown win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Almirante Brown win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Almirante Brown win 2%)
91′🟨 YELLOW · 93' San Miguel
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' San Miguel
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Almirante Brown win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Almirante Brown win 2%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Almirante Brown win 2%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Almirante Brown win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Almirante Brown win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
FTFULL TIME Almirante Brown 1–1 San Miguel
FTAlmirante Brown 1–1 San Miguel · Almirante Brown win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Almirante Brown win45%

Draw34%

San Miguel win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueEstadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Line-ups

Almirante Brown

San Miguel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Almirante Brown

San Miguel

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Almirante Brown

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Galvan

4 P. Velurtas

2 E. Cardozo

6 G. Cabral

3 G. Alegre Rojas

7 M. Abreliano

5 S. Gauna

8 T. Villoldo

10 L. Pascual

9 M. Zanotti

11 M. Santiago

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Bottini

13 · M. Levi

14 · J. Velazquez

15 · G. Moreyra

16 · G. Flores

17 · E. Martinez

18 · L. Jara

19 · T. Almada

20 · T. Zarate

San Miguel

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Ledesma Reynoso

4 L. Perez

2 F. Cardozo

6 K. Ceceri

3 D. Renteria

8 F. Almeida

5 I. Ramirez

10 J. Ferrero

11 E. De la Cruz

7 M. Serra

9 B. Nasta

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Escobar

13 · F. Aguirre

14 · A. Cruz

15 · T. Carosio

16 · L. Desabato

17 · M. Oses

18 · T. Diaz

19 · G. Fernandez

20 · T. Jerez

Our number · almirante brown winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Almirante Brown a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almirante Brown win	45%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
San Miguel win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Almirante Brown or draw	79%	–	–
Almirante Brown clean sheet	52%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.7%

0123450 18.7 10.2 3.7 1 17.9 13.4 4.0 2 10.4 6.7 2.2 3 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almirante Brown down, San Miguel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,896 Primera Nacional matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 580 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almirante Brown at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). San Miguel away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Almirante Brown, 0.65 for San Miguel. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 ALM

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

ALMIRANTE BROWN

WDDLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3

SAN MIGUEL

LLDDLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
3	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	33	+12	51
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Colegiales	33	+1	47
14	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	33	−7	42
20	Almagro	33	−9	41
21	Los Andes	32	+2	40
22	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
23	Quilmes	33	+2	39
24	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
25	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
26	San Telmo	32	−8	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Central Norte	32	−9	33
32	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23