Almirante Brown v Deportivo Moron prediction · Primera Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Almirante BrownDrawDeportivo Moron

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Almirante Brown 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Almirante Brown just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Almirante Brown 36%, draw 34%, Deportivo Moron 29%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Almirante Brown v Deportivo MoronBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Almirante Brown win36%

Draw34%

Deportivo Moron win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEstadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almirante Brown

Deportivo Moron

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Nacional

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almirante brown winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market37%

Us36%

~~Market~~37%

We make Almirante Brown a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almirante Brown v Deportivo Moron~~1.00 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 48 v 58~~7 v 3

~~The market · Almirante Brown win~~37% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Almirante Brown win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almirante Brown win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	34%	35%	−1
Deportivo Moron win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Both teams to score	38%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	13%	−1
Almirante Brown or draw	71%	72%	−1
Almirante Brown clean sheet	42%	–	–
Deportivo Moron clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 12.2 5.9 1 14.2 14.4 5.8 2 7.7 6.6 2.9 3 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almirante Brown down, Deportivo Moron across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,928 Primera Nacional matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.0% of games this season, across 612 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almirante Brown at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Moron away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Almirante Brown, 0.87 for Deportivo Moron. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–0 ALM · DEP 2–0 ALM · ALM 1–1 DEP · DEP 0–1 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 13 Sept

ALMIRANTE BROWN

DLLLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

DEPORTIVO MORON

WLLWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	+10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	+16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	+15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	+17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	+14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	+1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	+4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	+1	48
9	Los Andes	34	+1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	−3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	−10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	−8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	−7	38
14	San Telmo	34	−9	38
15	Central Norte	34	−8	37
16	All Boys	34	−10	35
17	Acassuso	34	−10	33
18	San Miguel	34	−14	32